And another thing…

Given that Labour’s current actions differ wildly from those proposed in their manifesto Gordon should resign and prepare to fight an election on the strength of his proposed policies.

Of course, he’ll never do it because Gordon’s never stood for election anywhere other than in the safe seat he holds.

Should Labour admit defeat? Absolutely NOT. There is no reason they can’t wipe the floor with the Tories should they address the concerns of the electorate. Frustratingly though, they aren’t, no party is.

I’ll give you an example. I was watching Question Time last night with Caroline Flint, Liam Fox, and some guy from the Lib Dems. There were questions about obvious topics, like concern for law and order. Do you know, not a SINGLE one of them talked about building more prisons, abandoning early release programs, or minimum sentencing! Instead they all talked about the importance of “investing” in families and social programs to ensure less people comitt crime in the first place. Do you know exactly what they are talking about? The break down of exactly what types of programs they are advocating? No, neither do I, and nether do the public, and worse still, neither do they. At a time when the public are being informed that Prison is a holiday camp, with more and more barmy and insulting prisoner “human rights” stories coming out, and at a time when the public actually believe that no-one actually goes to prison for more than a month regardless of the offense, all the three parties could do was stand there and say “investment is needed in social programs”. I’m incredulous. What a vote losing answer to give, and what a way to show the electorate that politics is a waste of time.

If Labour started listening to the concerns of the electorate and implimented the simple common sense solutions that people are looking for rather than giving nothing PC answers like “we need to invest in families”, the public would be more engaged and more supportive. As far as the next election is concerned the game is far from over, but it will be unless Labour change approach.

I know i’m teaching granny to suck eggs here Tom, and i’m sorry, I really didn’t mean to do that, especially to you given the fact that you are far from devoid of common sense yourself. It’s just that, well, i’m confused. Over in the States during Obama’s speeches he was passionate, and he broke down exactly how he was going to change America into 1) 2) & 3)’s during his speeches. They were common sense solutions that everyone wanted to here. He’s a deity now. Over the top I know, but he is.

The public see problems, and they see the common sense solutions, yet all they hear from the politicians is “investment in families, investment in young people” which to them translates as “blah blah blah nothing with happen to address any of your concerns blah blah blah”.

Change approach, have Cameron running scared. That’s what I would do anyway. You may now commence ridiculing me

Far from ridiculing you, John, I’m considering you for the Comment of the Week.

I also saw Question Time last night… And Caroline Flint was abysmal (against a mostly mediocre opposition). She clearly has limitations to her abilities – how the hell did she survive in a ministerial job and you get booted Tom? It’s a cruel world!!

Assumptions of defeat or victory are stupid, self defeating and insulting to the voters.

Basically it says “I know what you are thinking and I’m right”.

Since politics are driven by events – and a lot can happen in 3 weeks let alone the 14months or so by which time the next General Election MUST be held – any assumption as to the result is stoopid.

After all it is possible the US economy could start recovering mid 2009, trade revives , the Conservatives implode, Labour re-invent themselves and win.

Possible : Yes.

The likelihood of it all happening as above is low but it is NOT zero.

See John Major beating Neil Kinnock. All the Opinion Polls said Kinnock would win, Kinnock believed it, Major did not. More importantly, Kinnock acted as if he would win, Major acted to win.

You’re considering a post that basically says “To win the next election, Labour needs to build more prisoners, lock up more working class criminals and allow anybody to be as racist, sexist or discriminatory as they like (which is basically what an abandonment of PC is)” for post of the week? Just because it’s long and contains some long words and a nice humble bit at the end doesn’t mean it makes any sense…

NO! They should absolutely not admit defeat.

Any party that has served three full terms is vulnerable, if only because people are thinking about change, and because the government are there to be blamed for everything.

David Cameron is a young, smooth operator, who is quite skillful at the PR stuff.

There are many, many people who have no memory of life under the Tories.

Gordon Brown does not play well with the voters. He doesn’t have the common touch. He can’t think on his feet. Today’s “Today” interview was really poor. Sorry!

Millions of people have been living extremely comfortable lives for quite some time; many would argue this is because of the Labour government. When their lifestyle is under threat, they have to blame someone.

The media, particularly the right wing media, is very clever at playing on people’s fears and publishing only the news that will make the government look bad.
You can’t get even a moderate left wing comment on the Daily Mail!

So, what to do?

COMMUNICATE!! Get the message across. Not more of the Do-nothing party, saving the world, help for hard working families, let’s blame the States. We’ve heard all that. Just after Christmas, virtually every Tory front bencher had an article in one of the papers, with ideas and criticisms. You might not have agreed with them, but they were there. Labour ministers could do the same.

Don’t let Dave and George get away with some of their more inane statements. There’s no need for endless, constant bickering, but thoughtful arguments, well put will help.

Get the right people onto Question Time, Any Questions, Radios 1,2,3,4,5 and all TV channels.

Sort out PMQ’s. It’s dire and even I, a political anorac, loathe it.

People are looking for a sense that someone is not only to blame, but prepared to take the blame. Not just bankers, but politicians as well. A little humble pie would work wonders!

LISTEN! You can get away with unpopular policies like ID cards when you have a large majority and are a new administration, but not under these circumstances. Listen to the grass roots activists who hear the word on the doorstep. Mandelson is supposed to be very politically intelligent. He must see what’s going wrong.

But, it’s still a long way till the election. Loads can happen. Maybe the economy will pick up, maybe house prices will stabilise. All these steps the government has taken will kick in, and hopefully make a difference. There are still plenty of people, no matter how cross they may be with Labour, who would find it very, very difficult to put that cross next to a Tory name, even in the privacy of the ballot box.

And, don’t forget, the results in the polls are not exactly a strong confirmation of what David Cameron is doing, or he’d be streets ahead. Folk may be turning away from Labour, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re turning to the Tories with real certainty.

Chin up!

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. You don’t give up before the end. Liverpool in the Champions League final, Michael Caine in the Italian Job… There’s always a way and there’s always a chance.

As my Nana used to say, there’s many a slip between lip and cup – and who knows what slip ups dear Dave’ll have in the next year

I would rather eat my own head than give in to the a party lead by a political pygmy, who is only where he is due to the Bullingdon Club and his chameleon like changes of policy depend on what appears on the front page in the Daily Mail.

Alasdair,

The latest stats show that 40% of those who commit serious crimes get off with a caution. The overwhelming majority of us, working class, middle class, upper class or no class at all, want serious penalties for serious crimes.

What do we get instead? The racketeering and political criminalisation of countless trivial – and in some cases, honourable and ethical – forms of conduct such as smoking, parking in the wrong place, putting the wrong sort of plastic bottle in our recycling bin, reading out names of our war dead at the Cenotaph or standing up at a Labour conference and shouting “Nonsense!”

Your use of the class issue here is a red herring. most victims of serious crime are working class and most working class people, even those who are the least well off, are not criminals.

“birthright of power”, Nice pinch of class war there…Campbell will be proud.

Dealing with the main question.

Economics is not a science, the reason for this is “trust”, what our currency really is, that is what the Fiat currency system is, is a system of trust backed by the “fiat” or “order” of the state/govt.

When confidence in the Govt. goes and indeed confidence in its principle politicians goes, then whatever the text books say should happen, will not happen.

Indeed I would go further, the policies might indeed be right, but without the belief in trust then the game is up, as it is up for Crash Gordon.

The Labour party has one chance and that is to reinvent itself, it can have a go at doing it in office or it will have to do so in opposition. Baring in mind, removing Brown will necessitate a early election, not to do so would result in a massive early loss in trust and get you back to square one.

Personally I think, its too late, this Govt had already lost a great deal of trust with its lies over Lisbon and its refusal to honour its manifesto, adding the current economic woes have just amplified many such themes.

Dumping Brown right now, could well help the economy and save some jobs, it could re-establish a connection to the future rather than the mistakes of the past and save some ammo when in opposition.

You don’t want to be in Govt this time next year, this is a minimum two year recession brought about by about 20% of illusionary growth (the distortion of Asian savings pumping the Wests economies) which the market one way or another will correct.

So the in a usual recession you will have a 10% blowout in gdp this looks like its a double one. If its anymore its a depression, which I would put a 25% chance on.

PB seem to be making some of the same points.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/01/23/is-an-election-required-for-confidence-to-return/

Sorry to tell you Tom, but its a done deal. You will loose the next election. Brown will leave it as long as he can.
It could get that bad that he is forced to go early and that is the only reason he will.

You have still not learnt that you cannot keep spending what you do not earn.

I only remember Sheffield ‘92 from YouTube. I was six at the time.

I don’t think Labour should ‘concede defeat’; there’s plenty of other people waiting to do that for us.

But I do think that we should be frank and honest, and say that the polls look like it’s quite likely. IMHO it’s a great opportunity to evade looking like crafty spinners… and once you’re out of that particular web, you’re free to do a lot more to solve problems and regain popularity.

I think that there’s a serperate problem. I think our policy has improved since the other guy was in charge, and that since last year No 10 has also upped its game considerably. My big worry is that the public are looking for reasons to dislike Gordon, despite the fact that he’s far more likely to get them and their family through the current global downturn than the opposition are.

Anyone noticed how the swing in the polls recently has coincided with the ridiculous (but effective) ‘Gordon Brown’s recession’ attack?

After 11 years of new Labour moderation, there’s still about 90% of the print media out there waiting for political direction from the Tory Party, and a public only too happy to play supplicant to it, for a variety of reasons.

Separate, even.

I you want to know the answer ti Toms question I would recomend you read this.

http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/01/23/whos-to-blame/

All that has happened in the polls and could well happen as we move forward, is labour shoring up its base support 31-33%, polls tend to overplay labour ratings.

To win you have to be in the late 30s early 40s. You could do a deal with the LDs but this would I think would have a counter effect of causing a flight to the Tories, the desire now to get rid of NuLab is greater than the desire not to see Dave in No10.

Much though I would enjoy the sight of a ‘Brown: “We’ve Lost Already”‘ headline, it would be wrong for two reasons.

1. Any such admission has a Heisenberg effect: it wouldn’t be just an observation, but a statement with direct effects on an election’s perceptions.

2. It’s not the place of the government, or the opposition, to declare the result in advance. The only people with the right to decide are the electorate themselves. Statements either way get (rightly) punished.

Also worth pointing out that the “dramatic narrowing” still would have resulted in a Conservative government, albeit a minority one.

The best that Labour can possibly hope for at the next election is a hung parliament and even that’s looking increasingly unlikely…

No. If we go down – which i don’t think we will – then we at least do so fighting.

Tom, the Tories would ruin constituencies like yours and you need to get out and drum that message home to voters.

Paul, read Parris article in yesterdays times.

Bad news I am afraid, NuLab have made us about 20% poorer, thus it will not be Dave who should, or will get the blame for the plight of Toms constituents when the haircut comes there way.

Another thing Dave should not be blamed for when it happens in the next 3-6 years is an energy crunch, once again its Nulab who did not think ahead at the right time…you heard it here first!

Yes it should it is at fault.

http://johnnynorfolk.blogspot.com/2009/01/independent-bank-of-england.html