And another thing…

Tom, I don’t think the Tories are in any way complacent about winning the next election. I am sure you would like them to be. It is of course a fact that as a 33 year old, ever since I have been able to vote they have not won a General election.

The likelihood of them winning an election is so much more than Brown’s on off tease about calling the election many months ago. Now wasn’t that a sign of the dithering we’ve come to associate with his leadership.

As a spectator sport it isn’t the right wing of the Tory party that will be providing the enetertainment. It’s people like Charles Clarke or indeed any of a number of young turks that are biding their time before they will deliver a their fatal blow to a wounded PM.

Tories confident? Yes probably, particularly when faced with a Labour party that looks like it is out of ideas and running out of time. But complacent – afraid not.

It is fascinating yes – but forgive me if I’m being a little too conspiratorial here Tom but is it entirely coincidental that this is also a subtle & clever framing of the ‘Dave’s a front man – they’re still b****rds underneath’ line of attack trailed by Alan Johnson a couple of weeks ago?

Clever, subliminal way to get your message over – either you should be editing Labourlist or I’m giving you too much credit!

The Tory Party finally splits on the European question with one faction joining UKIP and the other maintaining a hard economic / soft social approach.
In the 2015 election, Labour (now led by Alan Johnson) is finally defeated mainly because it is exhausted. The new UKIP and Unionist Party (led by David Davis) has a rump of 20 seats, a breakaway green / Lib Dem party (led by Caroline Lucas) has five, as does Plaid Cymru. Power is held by an alliance of liberal Tories and conservative Lib Dems. It is led by Cameron who was ousted in 2010 by Osborne only to stage a coup two years later in the famous ‘night of the long dinner party’. This shaky coalition constantly needs to do deals with the minor parties to get legislation through. But, after losing a no confidence vote in the winter of 2018 because snow stopped crucial MPs voting, Labour are voted back into power with a majority of ten. . .and Ken Livingstone at the helm.
Possibly.

Another very interesting intellectual excercise is to imagine how all these right wing nutters on the lunatic fringe of the Conservative Party would act if they WERE to be given the reigns of power!

Scary biscuits indeed.

Is the advertisement income from your blog going to be declared in the register of members interests sometime soon?

Hrm. If the new leader leans left, do we think we’ll see a lot of defections to the Libertarian Party, UKIP, or god forbid even the BNP? It’s interesting that the Tories have managed to have their ‘New Labour’ moment without any Militant-style expulsions…

My fave “what if…” is the “…Neil Kinnock had won in 1992″ one. Perhaps Michael Portillo would now be entering his thirteenth year as PM instead of scratching a living as a media pundit and Tony Blair would be a fabulously wealthy, if obscure, lawyer instead of scratching a living as an international statesman.

Or the “… if GWB hadn’t won in 2000″ one. TB might now be entering his twelfth year as PM facing a broken Tory party and a couple of Liberals.

It’s a funny old world, what a shame we only get to run the game through the machine once…

Jonathan Sheppard: “Tom, I don’t think the Tories are in any way complacent about winning the next election.”

Really? I take it you don’t ever read the comments on this blog?

Tom, No I dont pay a hige amount attention to comments on this blog, my own blog or any blog. Guilty as charged.

I take it you have had some comments which you think show the Tories are complacent.

I seem to remember when I was still at school in Chesterfield a little rally taking place down the road at the Sheffield arena. Now that was complacency don’t you think?

Firstly I’d want a recount, then I’d expect a review by the election officer, then I’d expect a review by the electoral commission followed by a parliamentary review and a statement of intent by ACPO and a statement from the CPS as to who is to blame for committing the worst case of election fraud ever seen.

Interesting scenario. Lets play with 2 situations.

1) Labour gets an overall majority of say 5 seats. I think Cameron’s finished. This Labour Government, Gordon Brown, Jackie Smith etc… are deeply unpopular, and any Tory leader worth his or her salt should be able to beat them. So if Cameron doesn’t, then it’s a serious failing which I don’t think he’ll recover from. I’m not sure of a replacement though, although David Davis keeps popping into my head? Clarke? Too old. Osbourne? Hahahahaha. Hague? Been down that road already. No, I think David Davis could end up getting it. He’s not that bad, and I really don’t see any other stronger candidates.

2) The Labour Party becomes the largest party in a hung parliament. In that situation, then it all depends on the Lib Dems. Cameron will want to cosy up to them because otherwise he’s finished (despite calling Nick Clegg “the biggest joke in westminister”), and Gordon will want to do the same for similar reasons. Personally, I can either seeing the Liberal’s telling both parties to get stuffed – after all, both governments would be rubbish, so who’d want to be associated with that? I doubt Clegg would. OR, I can see Clegg jumping into bed with the Tories. I like Clegg, he is a very centrist Liberal, so appeals to me. However, that makes him closer to Cameron than it does to the overtly Socialist Brown.

Pure speculation of course, but it’s still an interesting thing to speculate about.

The Tories may not win in 2010, but they will not lose. Labour is facing an unprecedented wipe out at the next election. The Labour seats will go to the SNP, the greens, the Tories and Lib Dems. The BNP will squeeze the vote and let in many Lib Dems and Tories in usually unwinnable seats.

In 2010 the Tories will be the largest party and form a government. One of the first things they will do is cap donations at £50k from Unions, companies etc.

This will be the end of Labour. A shame really. I’d love New Labour to roll over and die, but not real Labour. Oh well, that’s what happens when you let a chump like Brown get hold of power.

Oh forgot to add, if the Lib Dems do tell both parties to naff off, then maybe Brown could continue with the DUP’s depending on the shortfall? They have been supportive of him up until now…..

Looking at George Osborne sitting next to David Cameron at PMQ’s when he’s allowed, I can’t decide who’s more scared of a Conservative victory at the next election, him or me. He looks white with worry that he might have to actually take on some responsibility, put real ideas into practice and answer for his actions. Why do I keep getting the feeling that some Tories almost seem to see politics as an amusing distraction that fills the time?

What’s with the quote marks around David? That is his name isn’t it? If it is a joke, the humour is lost on me sadly.

One thing I am sure of. No sensible polictian want to be in power in the UK for the next 12 months.

And those 12 months will detremine that whomever is in power will lose and lose badly.

Of course if you belive A Darling’s forecast , the recession will end July 2009 and I’m speaking rubbish (again:-).

But if he is wrong – and there can be little doubt as he’s got nothing right.. – then it’s going to be economic pain all the way.

Di I find the Conservatives appealing? I hark back 30 years. They were not appealing then. Mrs Thatcher was “inexperienced”. They had no policies . But Labour in Government were tired, worn out and economically incompetent. Healey “tax the rich till the pips squeak” and “I see no crisis” Callaghan.

Fast forward to now.

Not a lot has changed.

It’s not unprecedented. Neil Kinnock expected to win in 1992 because the Tories were very unpopular at the time. It was a shock to everyone that he managed to lose to John Major.

Anonemouse (11.29 am): “Is the advertisement income from your blog going to be declared in the register of members interests sometime soon?”

You got me! It’s a fair cop! And I would’ve got away with it if it weren’t for you pesky kid! There was me hoping I’d be able to pocket the money without anyone noticing! If only I hadn’t been so careless by… oh, I don’t know… allowing the adverts to be visible or writing blog posts on the fact that I was carrying advertising…

But nothing escapes your eagle eye, does it, Anonemouse…?

Jonathan Sheppard at 11.03: “Tom, I don’t think the Tories are in any way complacent about winning the next election.”

Richard at 12.43: “Firstly I’d want a recount, then I’d expect a review by the election officer, then I’d expect a review by the electoral commission followed by a parliamentary review and a statement of intent by ACPO and a statement from the CPS as to who is to blame for committing the worst case of election fraud ever seen.”

You see what I did there?

Tom – I do see.

You are assuming Richard is a Tory and is speaking for the Conservatives thereby trying to prove your opinion that all Conservatives believe the election is in the bag.

Mind you – wouldn’t Brown call the election if he thought he could secure a majority? Wouldn’t he press the button now? Wouldn’t he take his message of needing serious a serious politician for serious times to the people.

Go on Tom…. convince him to let the people decide.

Don’t anorak me me mate. I was anoraking (hmm, gotta be REALLY careful spelling that one) when you were still offering girls that you would show them yours if they would show you theirs. You’ve got over that know, being mature.

I haven’t.

Cameron is a twally. The Tories are twallies. All of them, or they wouldn’t be Tories. David Davis is a twally, that 42 days resignation fiasco. Ken Clarke is a twally.

Anyone else notice a slight fien de siecle element on the steets these days, and I don’t mean working girls. Time was (last year) you had to say to a girl, ‘Excuse me for intruding upon your privacy but you look deeply intested in philosphy. If you would care to discuss Wittengenstein over I cuppucon I shoukld be honoured to hear yours views’. Now it’s, doing anything for the next couple of hours hon? No, doubt if you can last that long but I’ll give you a jump.

Just heard a man answering his mobile, one of those nore sophisticated tunes than the one Tom bothers GB with.

What were his first words?

a) hello my good friend

b) so lovely to hear from you

c) awright bawbag?

It’s a question I’ve pondered for a long time. The results of a fourth Labour term would, I think, be a massive restructuring of party-politics in the UK.

It would reveal that the the politically-active classes on the centre-right are fundamentally unelectable in the 21st century. Why do I say that? Because the Labour party and Gordon Brown are unpopular. I say that as a Labour party member who will be out on the street campaigning for Laura Moffatt at the next election. If the Tories can’t win in this climate, after four years of building under a centrist figure like Cameron, I think it shows that they can’t win. They’d be a fringe party if they ran back to the right, but – as you point out – they’re not going tolerate moderate leadership and defeat simultaneously.

Still, that won’t vanquish the millions of right wing voters in this country.

(I think we’ll gonna lose, though.)

I too am confused by your habit of putting quote marks around the name David, “Tom”. Are you suggesting that David Cameron is working under a pseudonym, or not who he says he is?

Do “Tony”, “Gordon” or “Derek” have anything to say on the matter? What about “Carolyn”?

I just seems like an odd thing to do.

Tom Harris sometimes dances in a manner that could only be described as ‘iffy’.

Do you DENY this, Tom?!

If you look at Betfair it usually gives a good idea of what outcomes are likely. Tories are currently 1.58/1 and Labour 9.8/1. The interesting thing is that they’re now quoting “any other party” rather than Lib Dem, 200/1 at the moment. That’s come down from 1000/1. Judging by the sort of comments I’ve seen around the internet this week (Jacqui Smith, Dutch Bloke, photographing Police, Lord Ahmed, British Jobs etc) I’d say the support for the far right has risen sharply. Wish I’d put a tenner on at 1000-1.

I suspect Lord Ahmed and H Harman have formed a secret pact to prove that the BNP are right.
Lord Ahmed’s recent words in fact unfortunately confirm ant anti Muslim prejudice people hold..(Mobilisation of protesters etc).

Will it make a difference in an election?

Well for example Stoke on Trent has a strong BNP presence, has mainly Labour MPs and is being hit by redundancies.. So it may.

As for British Jobs etc, the recent train order going to Japan proves – as if we did not know it – that the phrase did NOT represent Government policy but was just a dog whistle.

If Labour win the next GE, the Conservative Party are in my view – finished. It’s an open goal.. So not just Cameron but the Party are dead..

All things are possible but the probabilities are different.

Would I be right in assuming, Mad, that your party loyalties lie somewhat to the right of both UKIP and the Conservatives?

I do not think the Tory party is taking anything for granted. However as labour have made such a mees of things I can understand why you do think that way. Labour have been totaly uncritical of their leadership. So rather than admit they have made such a mess of things you accuse the Tories of being over confident of winning. Its this kind of twisted logic that make it impossible for Labour to run anything.
Can you not understand Tom the country wants rid of you as soon as possible.The longer you stay the worse you make it. You cannot change the way you do things you cannot bring yourselves to do what needs to be done.
You know the Tories will have to do it for you. Then you can do what you do best. Winge at the sidelines.

Yeah, must be annoying to have to whinge from the sidelines, eh Johnny?

If that’s the picture after the next election, I’m emigrating. So far, life under Labour for me has meant;

- Having the assisted places ladder pulled from under me, so in the same situation my children would have to go to a nearby state school regardless of whether they were failed schools or not
- Student loan debt
- Visiting a job centre which is clueless and can provide no help to someone like me with professional qualifications.
- Next to no pension
- Property prices making owning even a one bedroom flat a pipe dream after Gordon Brown’s unsustainable property boom fuelled by using an unreliable inflation measure which kept rates too low for too long
- A financial system where all of a sudden, there is a tarnished “guilt by association” for anyone who works in a financial institution, regardless of whether they had any role; unless they’re on the lowest rung, and then, somehow, they’re absolved of any responsibility.

So, clearly lots of reasons to want to choose labour next time….

And yet – out in the Real World where real people make real votes: (this from today’s Indi):
Cannock Chase District – Cannock West: C 654, Lab 333, Lib Dem 93. (May 2008 – C 1417, Lab 480). C hold. Swing 9.8% C to Lab.

Croydon London Borough – Waddon: C 1462, Lab 1222, BNP 157, Lib Dem 150, Green 115, Ukip 48, People’s Choice 13, Monster Raving Loony 11. (May 2006 – Three seats C 2335, 2285, 2215, Lab 2040, 1973, 1942, Green 485, Lib Dem 402, 395, Pensions Action Alliance 135, 133, 117). C hold. Swing 0.9% Lab to C.

Enfield London Borough – Jubilee: Lab 1346, C 1049, Lib Dem 69, Green 60, Ukip 59, Ind 41. (May 2006 – Three seats Lab 1543, C 1539, Lab 1521, C 1431, Lab 1427, C 1281, Green 468). Lab gain from C. Swing 4.4% C to Lab.

Labour takes a seat from Conservative, Cons hold another with a 9.8% swing against them, they buck the trend with a 0.9% swing in their favour in another seat.

Last week it was Labour holding off a strong BNP with another swing in their favour

Hyde Newton: Lab 1379, BNP 889, C 485, Lib Dem 172, Green 69, Ukip 33.

(May 2008 – Lab 1124, BNP 846, C 732, Lib Dem 376).

Lab hold. Swing 3.6% BNP to Lab.

From the Manchester Evening News (and look at the Cons & LibDem vote there).

Aren’t General Elections decided on real votes?

The big danger is obviously Labour complacency – an increased majority cannot be taken for granted. Front-rank Steady! (please)

Pete

Here we go again.

Vote Labour – The Tories Are Posh being superseded by Vote Labour – The Tories Are Super-mug.

You could always, you know, try and win the next election on your record as a party. Let’s have a look – busted economy, busted banking system, 5.1 million on full-time benefits (and another 500,000 ’signing-on’ at school), prisons full up, hospitals MRSA’d up, and post-school illiteracy at record levels.

Hmmm, on reflection, I’d stick to the name-calling.

There is one thing in Labour’s favour amidst all this, I must admit. Gordon Brown will not want to be remembered in the history books as someone who failed to win a single general election. Even John Major won it in 1992, much to everyone’s surprise.

In the unlikely event that Labour does actually win outright next time, it could well mean the end of the Tory Party. Tories have this sense of entitlement about them which is apparent and rather off-putting. They seem to think they’re the natural party of government, and being defeated 4 times in a row would be too much for most of them to bear.

“You are assuming Richard is a Tory”

-

Guilty as charged but you have to admit that while ‘expecting’ victory certainly suggests complacency, working flat-out to maintain an existing poll lead isn’t quite the same thing.

@ The Grim Reaper –
“Gordon Brown will not want to be remembered in the history books as someone who failed to win a single general election”

-

Gordon almost certainly will go down as a PM who never won an election outside of his own (safe) Labour seat. The “Bottler Brown” epiphet will stay with him long after he’s left the country for a lucrative lecture tour.

Jonathan Sheppard at 3:16.

It’s a common fallacy of Labourites that “anti-Labour” implies “Tory”.

@ Richard: “Gordon almost certainly will go down as a PM who never won an election outside of his own (safe) Labour seat. The ‘Bottler Brown’ epiphet will stay with him long after he’s left the country for a lucrative lecture tour.”

I suspect you’re not being entirely serious. Can you actually imagine people willingly going along to a Gordon Brown lecture? They wouldn’t be able to pay people to go…

Tom
When did you last hear Cameron or any other Tory say the election is in the bag?
Don’t confuse journalists with politicians or party activists. (Not that you do of course).
No, Tories like me are still anxious that the polls continue to show a Conservative lead and we’ll work our socks off to get you out next year.

Down here in the real world everyone I know is fed up to the back teeth with Labour, even those that voted for them in the past. Whether its the economy, tax, Iraq, immigration, MP snouts in the trough or civil liberties, they have all had enough. It doesn’t really matter who they are going to vote for in 2010, it won’t be Labour. Some will vote Tory, some LibDem, some UKIP, some BNP. There is no real ground swell pro Tory feeling. But neither was there a pro New Labour sentiment in 1997. Everyone just hated the Tories. If you hate the government that much you’ll vote for anyone just to get rid of them. And that is what will happen next year. Goodbye Gordon and the Scottish maffia. He’ll just have to go back to Scotland ‘to think again’.

A Tory party NOC.

The LibDems, ravenous for power and electrified by the chance of a coalition -and if they are honest, that thrills them more than an outright win…just THINK of all the compromises and endless horse trading! – will snuggle up to Labour.

Yet, this fails as Labour is rent asunder as the old Left refuse to swallow the wibble needed for such a deal, so the LibDems offer themselves to the Tories, who bite. Cameron wants to have power at any price and is certain he can marginalise and contain them.

However, the LibDems have lain with dogs and woken up with a whole new bunch of ex-Labour Social Democrat fleas who see a place in the LibDem-Tory nexus as a far more lucrative prospect than getting sucked into Labour’s twattrictide. This muddying of the waters pulls the LibDem centre of gravity to make it less palatable to many Tories but still tempting to some Tories who are really Federast or Fabian faux Liberals.

The bulked out LibDems embolden the Red Tories and this causes deep divisions. The Red Tories believe they are “the future”.

Like some chain reaction the Labour, LibDem and Tories are in a game of musical chairs. The Tory NOC is the root. The Red Tories believe they can chance their arm and force the old guard Tories to behave under a LibDem-Tory alliance which is increasingly Social Democratic in nature, but masquerading as One Nation Toryism as only a Fabian Fifth Column can.

The old guard Tories, like the Socialists, will not be bullied by these Centrist hoons and, smelling a rat, they give them the brush.

So, we have a Socialist party, a trad Tory party and a bigger Social Democrat party.

Falling through the cracks will be the Libertarians from the Liberal Democrats UKIP and Tory Party. I say UKIP, as the Libertarians will find that one or two of their MPs are a horse of a different colour. One stripe short of a full flag, as it were that Farage cannot control.

These Libertarians will join the Libertarian Party, which will offer the only alternative to Authoritarianism. All the main parties would have been harmed by the splits while the Libertarian Party will be absorbing alot of new people and cats to herd.

The BNP will be most upset, because all they will get are the rejects from UKIP and the Tory old guard who will then spend their time disrupting things once they realise the PR was false and National Socialism is on the menu. it will eat itself and some form of NF will re-emerge. No better, but at least open about its nastiness.

The problem will be exacerbated by the refurbishment of the HoC pushing the House to reside in the QEH. As can be expected, the Fabian traitors will have wormed their way into the organising and logistics committees talking everyone to death so that the QEH is in some ghastly circle seating or such, not the old opposing arrangement. This will psychologically undermine and fragment the MPs, removing any perception of government and opposition. A weak, centrist National Government. Fabian goal achieved…so they think.

I expect this to result in the 2010 Parliament not lasting a year or thereabouts.

A bright future for the Libertarians stretches forward as people realise what a waste of time, dysfunctional and downright useless the State is.

@ Roger Thornhill

I doubt the Cameron would want to formally ally himself with the LibDems. I suspect he’d prefer to form a minority administration or oppose a lib-lab alliance.

@Roger Thornhill

What happens when someone realises what a dysfunctional, useless waste of time libertarians are?

@John
“the overtly socialist Brown”? Really? Are we going to replicate the past two years in American politics whereby “Socialist” just means “someone not quite as balls-deep into free-market capitalism as I am”? Words used to have real meanings where I came from.

@Tom Harris
The bigger worry for me is that there seems to be no solution for what ails the current political establishment beyond a hung parliament leading to some kind of minor constitutional crisis. The two major parties are both playing games to see who can pander the most to Tabloid interests, and the slow erosion of civil liberties in an age of technology that seeks to undermine the authoritarian urge to control everything is leading to schizophrenia and hysteria in the halls of government. While Brown and Co are reacting to crisis after crisis, there seems to be very little coming from Cameron that indicates the new Tory party would bring anything different from the mishmash of reactionaries and contradictory policies we have at the moment, and it seems that we have entered a new era of political determinism, with no statesman having sufficient force of will to alter the inexorable path the heath robinson mechanism of government takes in response to the much-feared Events.

If Labour win, the Tories would fragment, no doubt – but if the Tories win I suspect that many on the Labour benches would have a similar Damascene moment. Nonetheless, I don’t see either event bringing about a government that isn’t frustratingly incompetent and incomprehensibly authoritarian, and from the political independent’s point of view this partisan snarking only serves to reinforce the idea that the characters on both sides would rather win for the sake of proving that the other side are poopyheads than because they’re concerned with the sober management of the affairs of state.

Rather than just whining “what are you going to do, vote Tory?” why not try being competent at government instead?

Gah, there really needs to be better support for line breaks between paragraphs in the comments section. Someone fix the CSS so it doesn’t turn every long comment into an unreadable slab of text!

Well the only way they will win is by doing a Mugabe or a Jes Bush jobbie on the British electorate and they have form here Birmingham Leicester and Glenrothes

http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2486810.0.Demand_for_inquiry_as_Glenrothes_byelection_register_is_lost.php

http://comments.theherald.co.uk/heraldtalk/2009/02/demand-for-inquiry-as-glenrothes-by-election-register-is-lost.php

BE AFRAID BE VERY AFRAID coming to a Polling Station near you.

“Gah, there really needs to be better support for line breaks between paragraphs in the comments section”

-

Yes, it;s terrible isn’t it.

-

If only someone could come up with a solution…

David – so who do you think lost the registers? The SNP controlled local authority or the court system, overseen by the SNP government?

Tom! @ 4.30

Don’t you go spoiling a good conspiracy theory.

Well who do you think had anything to gain from these registers going missing/ Hardly the SNP dontyathink 7000 postal applications and a win by around 6500 when everyone knew it was going to be a few hundred votes in it – to me it has a stinky stinky smell. I assume you can blame the SNP for the cheating in Birmingham too

“I assume you can blame the SNP for the cheating in Birmingham too”.

-

Those pesky Scots Nationalists get everywhere…
Luckily, help is at hand; http://tinyurl.com/snpoff

I’m seeing a swing in these comments to anti both Lab and Con. Anti the current political establishment. And that’s because our political system (and constitutional position as a mid Atlantic island) is out of kilter with not just Europe but many other countries. Wake up, Tom, and look for something better, something that puts the politicians and the top of the civil service in touch with the real world, the information society that confounds all secrecy and demands competence and a connection between policy and delivery.

@McDuff
“the overtly socialist Brown”? Really? Are we going to replicate the past two years in American politics whereby “Socialist” just means “someone not quite as balls-deep into free-market capitalism as I am”? Words used to have real meanings where I came from.

Pfft, you have a LiveJournal account, so what do you know?

I liked the quote though! I genuinly chuckled at that one. KUTGW!

I see that the smilies are still horiffically butchering the comment layout :*(

*Prods Tom to do something about it* (Please!)

So, no-one liked my first attempts at photoshoppery then?

@John
“Pfft, you have a LiveJournal account, so what do you know? “

So’s your face, LOLZ!
-
If that kind of trite nonsense is the best you can do, what on earth makes you think anyone should take you seriously?