And another thing…

Jesus, for goodness sake change the record. Every time a poll comes out with a 10-12 point lead you repeat the same mantra. It’s tedious. No doubt you would do this if it were 15 or even 20. A ten point lead gives a comfortable majority. End of. One is enough. Sort of

As I’ve written here before:

The country is crying out for a change, but not necessarily, a change of governing party – yet.

A clear out on the labour front bench – brown included, along with the continued unconvincing performance from the tories, could well see a labour government returned to power in 2010.

If I were a lib dem, I’d be worried though, I think they’ll be quite rightly routed at the general election.

Iain Dale — You know I only do it to wind you up. And there’s no need to blaspheme.

Well if the electoral system wasn’t so biased in favour of Labour then perhaps you’d be more concerned. 1997 was ‘the landslide’ and Labour won by 12.5% and a majority of 179.

Care to explain why a 10pt Tory lead doesn’t translate into a similar lead?

See, that was kind of positive headline I was looking for the other week!

(With love. Kiss, kiss.)

The Torygraph’s Simon Heffer has questioned the assumption in Tory circles that such a slim lead in the polls would translate into an actual election win for the Cons – and he’s right to be sceptical.

The obvious parallel is Labour’s decisive lead in the polls prior to the ‘92 election.

LOL at the ‘Your Future under Labour’!

Just wait for the election. polls favour Labour, and things for the people of Britain will be much worse this time next year.
I think you would be better addressing the issues caused by Labour rather than smoke screens like this.

You should update yourself on the how the polling methodology has changed over the last few years.

Labour is in real trouble unless you change your leader. Perhaps you should give some thought to that. Alan Johnson is your only hope.

Typical Labour, blaming past administrations for the mess we are in. The Romans were firm but fair and did a lot of good things, including building a bloody great big wall that sadly, didnae work. I have long campaigned for an apology from Rome over the invasion of Britannia, and the enslavement of its people (not to mention intrusive personal hygiene requirements) and suggested they they could at least by us a Quattro Formaggio with extra olives and an Alfa Romeo Spider by way of recompense.

It’s curious.

Currently, on your previous blog related to Daniel Hannan’s attack on the Prime Minister in the European Parliament, there are approximately 112 posts. At a rough estimate, I should say that only about four support your view that it is not acceptable to criticise our country’s PM in another country. Much as Jeremy Clarkson did some weeks ago in Australia. Many of the posts did not altogether relate to your comments that criticising any Prime Minister of any party abroad would be unacceptable, but launched into an attack on the current PM and the record of the Labour party.

4 out of 112 is less than 4%. Yet in the YouGov poll, more than 30% of those polled still wish to vote Labour at the next election!

Are you not getting a balanced cross section of the electorate on your blog? Strange.

Also, in my naivety, I thought that many Tories were “Eurosceptic”. Now, I know that many of your visitors can be anti Labour without being Tory, but there seemed to be loads of folk posting who apparently view the European Parliament as “our” parliament, and the ideal forum for Hannah’s remarks. Those who support the European Union and Britain’s place in it will be taking heart!

Considering all the numerous failings of the current government, their leader and even your good self, as pointed out ad nauseam on the blogosphere, one would have assumed that every sane person on the country would be raring to vote conservative. But then, maybe only 40% of the electorate are sane. No wonder there are so many angry Tories.

Curiouser and curiouser!

By the way, I hope you bought spoons in Asda. For all this stirring!

I’m sure you really see the writing on the wall, Tom. There are enough people in the country who want to see Labour out of power because of their record over the last 12 years. But more importantly, there is a groundwswell against Gordon Brown in particular because he is seen to be the chief architect of our economic woes.

The man is a walking disaster. Get rid of him now. Ed Balls would be the perfect replacement with Yvette Cooper as Chancellor of Exchequer and Douglas Alexander as Home Secretary. Now, there’s a dream team.

Maybe the political betting link has a clue: “YouGov weight by party ID and its weighting formula is much kinder to Labour than the firms that past vote weight. Over the past seven months YouGov is the only firm not to have reported a Labour share in the 20s.”

@ Tom

“And there’s no need to blaspheme.”

He’s done it here before and he should have learned to show a bit of respect by now.

I also agree with the point of your post. It’s not that New Labour aren’t that bad, it’s that the Tories can’t be believed or trusted either. I don’t want to vote for them.

What should I do?

Tom. Come the General Election (or Revolution, whichever comes soonest), you should be ok, but……….I would start saying goodbye now to many of your fellow Labour MPs; it is likely to take a long time.

I was at a pensioners’ gathering the other day, and found there was genuine fear at the possibility of a Cameron-led Tory Government. “He’ll take away our £250 winter fuel allowance!”, they said. The Tories will have an almighty shock on Polling Day.

Meanwhile over on Iain’s blog…he’s feeling disquiet because you have changed your record…..for voting against your Party.
You can’t win, Tom.

…given the economic situation and the fact that we are nearly four years into a third Labour term, isn’t it legitimate to ask why the Tories aren’t doing much, much better under their “inspiring” young leader?

I know you’re partly on a wind-up but I think it’s good to compare the ICM 1997 poll with their latest one. ICM according to politicalbetting is the most consistently reliable pollster and the only one in ’97 that can be compared with now, due to changes in methodology of the other pollsters

Last ICM poll before the ’97 election
Conservative 31%
Labour 45%
Lib Dem 18%

Actual 1997 result
Conservative 31.4%
Labour 44.4% (note that Labour’s share always falls during an election)
Lib Dem 17.2%
Lead 13%

Labour majority 179, Conservatives trounced for a generation

Latest ICM poll 2009

Conservative 42%
Labour 30%
Lib Dem 22%

Lead 12%

Leader Personal ratings

1997
Tony Blair 35%
John Major 28%

Now
Cameron 45%
Brown 24%

isn’t where we would ideally like to be. No I bet it isn’t

Good point from Arnold regarding the views of pensioners. My Mum is in that age group and there is a general consensus that things like the Winter Fuel Payment, free bus travel and free TV licenses for the over-75s have all been good things. Plus NHS waiting lists have gone down. There is a fear amongst them that this things are in jeopardy if the Tories get back in. And pensioners tend to be more conscientious about using their vote than other age groups.

Also, regarding Tory credibility – interesting news from Essex about Thurrock council leader, former Conservative Terry Hipsey, who has defected to Labour.

According to BBC Essex’s webpage:

—————————–
Mr Hipsey said he could no longer “justify” Tory policies, particularly on tax.

He said: “When speaking to constituents, I cannot justify David Cameron’s decision to make his number one priority in a recession a tax cut, which would give hundreds of thousands of pounds to millionaires, but do nothing for the vast majority of Thurrock families.

“In contrast, I have been deeply impressed by the way that Gordon Brown has recognised the urgent need to give real help to families now.

“By joining the Labour Party, I hope to be able to support the Prime Minister’s practical steps to help people in Thurrock out of this recession.”

————————————-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/essex/7964803.stm

Good for him! I expect he will get throughly flamed by the internet Tory swivellers. But that kind of reaction just shows how basically insecure in their beliefs they are.

‘these things are in jeopardy’ I meant to say. Wish there was an edit function!

evolved into huge telepathic brains floating in glass jars, etc.
————————————-

I suppose only someone who’s lips are firmly welded to the public teat (even if only for the next year or so) could be so ‘jovial’ about the absolutely dire state of the economy.

And as for the commenter who thinks ‘Alan Johnson is your only hope’… If so, God help Labour – Johnson certainly isn’t up to the job, and if you don’t believe me, ask him.

Still, he’s ‘one of us’ – and he used to be a postman you know.

Apparently there’s this long tradition of postmen going on to become really successful leaders of their countries. (About as long as the tradition of junior lawyers going on to become really successful leaders of their countries.)

Tosh, mate, deal with reality. It’s finished, it’s over, you as a party have failed, and dismally, just admit it, and let someone else give it a go.

They couldn’t do a worse job that’s for sure.

@Nicky

‘But that kind of reaction just shows how basically insecure in their beliefs they are’

Or how outraged they are?

Rapunzel …“there seemed to be loads of folk posting who apparently view the European Parliament as “our” parliament…”

Lest there be one scintilla of doubt (and I’m sure there isn’t) I have no allegiance to any party but (as one such poster as you describe) am a very firm and unswaving pro-European ever since Ted Heath took us in to the then Common Market.

I am also firmly pro-Euro and I think our time has come and the arguments for entering the Euro-zone are now pretty unanswerable. [I even took a special trip to rural France to enjoy the earlier switch-over.]

So it’s not surprising that I view the European Parliament as our parliament. Tom has made it abundantly clear that he does not.

@Nicky: My Mum is in that age group and there is a general consensus that things like the Winter Fuel Payment, free bus travel and free TV licenses for the over-75s have all been good things.

I don’t doubt that some are concerned about those, but it’s also important to take into account that older people are more likely to be savers, and at the moment are being hit hard by the low interest rates, also many that I know are angry about post office closures and that’s not even considering collapsed pension schemes and Brown’s tax raids on pensions.

There are a lot of angry pensioners out there, so I think it would be wrong to assume many older people will automatically vote Labour based on fear that free bus travel may (or may not) end.

If it wasn’t for the electoral system being heavily biased towards Labour, a ten point lead would translate into an even greater majority in the Commons.

The only reason that Labour have a chance at the next election is because they have refused to comply with the electoral changes that would rebalance the scales away from an inner city bias.

“The only reason that Labour have a chance at the next election is because they have refused to comply with the electoral changes that would rebalance the scales away from an inner city bias.”

Sources, please? From memory, the last time a government refused to implement the conclusions of the independent Boundary Commission was in the run-up to the 1970 election.

It won’t make much difference who wins the next election. Tory, Labour, both with pretty well the same EU driven agenda of handing over yet more power to Brussels. All either can do is tinker on the sidelines whilst fiddling their expenses, neither will listen to us and neither has anything very inspirational about them. Depressing really. It’s not surprising that there is so little difference in the polls. If there was a category for “A plague on all their houses” it would probably get 90+%.

@ Paul Williams, re OAPs and savings. There aren’t any easy answers about savings vs reduced mortgage payments. In Japan their instinct was to stash away the savings and it resulted in Japan going into a long recession.

Some older people would rather spend the kids’ inheritance by living it up a bit while they still can. Other older people prefer to read Daily Mail and feel hard done by. It’s a personal choice.

@Letters From A Tory

AS far as I can see the boundary commission does a fair enough job, the ‘bias’, as you call it, towards inner cities could have something to do with a large number of people living in cities.

I still think the Clyde forms a natural boundary (in the terms understood by the boundary commission) in Glasgow, but central has always straddled it so that can’t be put down to bias.

There are large effects that assist labour.
1) Scotland has smaller constituancies compared the England and sadly it returns a lot of labour MPs.
2) Labours vote is more concentrated in what used to be industrial areas.
3) Many people have accepted the untruths promelgated by labour and still think that the labour party as it now is the same as it was pre-60s; they think it is a party of the workers and unions rather than the grouping of lawyers/hacks/stalinists with no working experience it now is.

On the 30%, why shouldn’t 30% vote labour? What percentage of electors is dependent for their salary on state funded non-jobs or even worse jobs that assist state control.

As labour is happy to tell these people that their jobs will go under the conservatives (which I hope many will) they may vote labour out of selfishness.

Oh yes, almost forgot, lots of people just vote as their parents did or as they voted last time, they’ld have to admit to themselves that they made a mistake.

The floating voter population isn’t very large normally, even counting switching from labour to snp (which isn’t much of a change politically as both are left wing groups).
It needs a lot of pain and hurt for people to switch but as a lot of labour voters are on the state payroll one way or another they aren’t being hurt much.

Letters From A Tory: “If it wasn’t for the electoral system being heavily biased towards Labour…”

One minute there. One minute. One cannot let that little untruth past.

The farce of an electoral system we currently have is grossly biased towards the Tories and Labour.

For instance, any fair and balanced, reasonable system would have excluded Thatcher from office without considerable modification of her worst policies.

Biased towards Labour, my arse.

Ah ha, I see Gordon’s plan to get the pensioner vote. Ruin pensions with tax and ruin savings with tax and interest rates, leaving them with only the winter fuel allowance. Then spread rumours about the Tories scrapping it (I haven’t heard them say they will), and hey presto, a whole new age group to add to the client state vote.

Tom, out of interest, what is the Labour party’s plan to rebalance the books if they happen to win the next election? Tax rises or spending cuts?

The Dear Leader had better win the next election or Labour will go down in history as inflicting the UK with an even less successful PM than John Major who at least managed to win an election. And that, if memory serves, sent Kinnock into hiding for a week. Oh happy days!

Incidently Tom, will you be catching BBC Parliament’s coverage of the fall of the Callaghan government tomorrow? It’ll be unmissable television for me!

This post is just a clever ploy to divert attention away from the beginning of the Formula One Grand Prix season.

@Nicky: You’re right there aren’t easy solutions, I was just commenting that low interests rates on savers is going to affect the Labour vote as much as the winter allowance may enhance it.

Nice to see your implication of ‘tough!’ though to people (most of whom are not particularly well-off) who’ve worked hard and saved for their retirement that they should lose out, but then that’s their fault for being ‘prudent’ I s’ppose.

As for the ‘Daily Mail’ jibe I always interpret those as the result of a lost argument.

This argument is like criticising Liverpool for only beating Manchester United by 5 goals when it could have been six ..(I don’t use a Scottish team for this simile as the Scots stopped playing real football after Aberdeen won the First Division and Ferguson emigrated):-)

I am sure the Conservatives would be happy with a majority in excess of 20 seats.. which this polling would give in a GE.

The worrying thing for Labour is they cannot make any LASTING inroads into the Conservative lead.

And the economy is going to deteriorate further in the next 12 months …

The Tories and Labour = the Devil and the deep blue sea

As a matter of curiosity what would happen if 95% of the electorate simply didn’t vote at the next GE in protest? Does there have to be a minimum turnout?

@ PW: The reason I mentioned the DM is that it fosters a miserable, paranoid and negative view of both the economy and life in the UK generally. But it has a lot of readers, especially in the older age group, and it does impact on how they feel about their lives. It wasn’t meant as a cheap jibe at all, more a comment on the effect it has on its readers. On the other hand, some pensioners would rather make the most of life and do the things they couldn’t do before they retired.

Also, there wasn’t any implication of ‘tough’ in my post. Except in your imagination. And I very much doubt if Brown, someone for whom prudence and stinginess is imprinted in his DNA, embraced with any enthusiasm the idea of people losing out on interest on their savings. But he was stuck between a rock and a hard place.

@Nicky

‘And I very much doubt if Brown, someone for whom prudence and stinginess is imprinted in his DNA, embraced with any enthusiasm the idea of people losing out on interest on their savings.’

I’m not so sure you know. The phrase ’scorched earth’ seems to be popular at the moment but that’s because it’s how a lot of people see his current tactics. Comparisons to Stalin again. Poor Stalin. He gets a bad press, even for a mass-murdererer.

Brown is dirigiste and the little people with their private little financial arrangements do not figure in his thinking.

@Nicky
And I very much doubt if Brown, someone for whom prudence and stinginess is imprinted in his DNA, embraced with any enthusiasm the idea of people losing out on interest on their savings. But he was stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Both of which he carefully and studiously built during his time in ministerial office.

It was brown’s choice to rob private pensions; he didn’t have to do it he just decide to attack those who had saved to fund his party’s profligacy.

Also.
When did prudence become a cheap whore?

Brown has never been stingy when spending other peoples money?

“if Brown, someone for whom prudence and stinginess is imprinted in his DNA”

That’s a joke, right?

Madasafish
Friday 27 March 2009 at 5:27 pm
“if Brown, someone for whom prudence and stinginess is imprinted in his DNA”

That’s a joke, right?
—————————————–

Yep – sitting on his jacksie while RBS spent a trillion (yes a trillion) quid of our (yes our) money on derivatives aka smoke, mirrors, p**s, and wind.

That’s prudence and stinginess for you.

Arnold
Friday 27 March 2009 at 8:07 am
The Tories will have an almighty shock on Polling Day.
—————————————-

Yes, the scale of our victory will surprise us.

But I think poor Arnold is set for an even bigger shock

Not that a Tory government is particularly exciting to Me per se, but watching You lot get the almighty kicking thats coming to You and You suffering your worst nightmare will assuage the pain from the wounds the “Evil One” has inflicted on Me. Enjoy.

…and while I’m on, I suppose I should really mention, in passing, the other half of RBS’ quote asset unquote base – its (or rather ours)one trillion of quid mortgages, credit card, personal loan, and sundry corporate debt, a goodly old chunk of which it (or rather we) can whistle for.

All this on Prudence and Stingy’s watch.

Can anyone remember the name of that fellow who always used to call him, ‘Our Greatest Ever Chancellor’?

Nope.

Me neither

Brown has had many plaudits for his handling of the global economic crisis. For example, from the Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman. But hey, what do Nobel prize winning economists know about anything? Of course you lot know better!

And what about the ex-Tory leader of Thurrock council. Remember what he said?

“I have been deeply impressed by the way that Gordon Brown has recognised the urgent need to give real help to families now.”

And until recently, were the Tories advocating more bank regulation? No, they were calling for more de-regulation, and accusing Brown of control freakery!

And why don’t we just re-cap on the Tories’ record the last time they were in power:

- Britain went through the two worst recessions since the Second World War. Without the aid of the collapse of the global banking system.

- Britain had the highest long term interest rates in the European Union, reaching 17% in 1980 and 15% in 1990.

- The national debt doubled under the Tories, despite a heavier tax burden on the British people.

- The Budget deficit totalled £175 billion between 1992/93 and 1996/97, adding up to £6,500 for every working person in the land.

- Average inflation was higher in Britain than in any other industrialised state, except Italy.

- Britain had the lowest level of investment in any of the OECD countries.

- The UK created fewer jobs than any other industrialised country.

- Britain saw the slowest period of growth since the war.

- Britain had lower growth than any other major industrialised nation.

So there’s the facts. But why let the inconvenient truth get in the way when you have a load of half-baked prejudices to air?

The worrying thing for the Tories is predictions that this recession may last over five years. That puts them in an unenviable position should they win the forthcoming general election.

They’ll have ownership of a bad economy and out on their ear.

Anyway, it’s too early to call this election yet. I don’t think anyone loves the Tories; they just think it’s “time for a change”.

The Labour party itself could supply that change with a new leader but that looks to be a vanishing prospect.

So when will help be available to this strugglng family?

Just thought I’d ask.

Still seems to be a case of get stuffed You’ve been taking care of Yourself too well.

I find it very interesting that you have edited your post and appeared to have removed this part:
“My Mum is in that age group and there is a general consensus that things like the Winter Fuel Payment, free bus travel and free TV licenses for the over-75s have all been good things. …. 3) Many people have accepted the untruths promelgated by labour and still think that the labour party as it now is the same as it was pre-60s; they think it is a party of the workers and unions rather than the grouping of lawyers/hacks/stalinists with no working experience it now is. …”

Why did you remove that then? Could it be because the Labour govenrment is now planning to withdraw most of the free bus travel for over 60s in England?!

I did no such thing. Check your facts before making stupid accusations. If I wanted to delete any of your comments, believe me, I would, without hesitation or apology. But I have not edited any of them.