COMMENTS on the Budget are welcome below, but in the meantime, here are my initial thoughts.
Overall, I thought the Chancellor struck exactly the right tone: serious but optimistic, which is what I hoped for when Carolyn Quinn invited me to think out loud on the subject on The Westminster Hour on Sunday.
The 50p tax rate was a shock, I’ll admit. Does this represent the end of New Labour? I don’t think so, and I’ll tell you for why. New Labour recognised that the “soak the rich” approach to taxation was folly, totally counter-productive and was essentially a philosophy which scorned personal aspiration. So, to sum up: A Bad Thing.
Nevertheless, higher taxes, when they’re imposed to raise revenue for a specific purpose and aren’t being levied for their own sake don’t of themselves mean that we want to return to our Old Labour ways. When national insurance was raised in the 2001 parliament, for instance, that was specifically to raise cash for the NHS: in other words, A Good Thing.
Today’s tax hike was, presumably, unavoidable in the current economic circumstances. But I hope we’ll see a commitment in a future manifesto to return to the 40 per cent tax level for higher earners when circumstances allow.
But I can see trouble ahead with the car scrappage scheme. Everyone who owns a car that’s more than 10 years old will get a grand from the government and a grand from the car dealer to buy a replacement. But when you go into any car dealer, the first thing they do anyway is bump at least a few hundred off the label price in an attempt to get you to buy the car. Does this mean that the discount that buyers regularly negotiate will now be mandated by the government instead? And if so, what’s to stop dealers adding a grand to the initial cost of the car before negotiations begin? Or am I being too cynical?
One last word about Cameron’s response: he started by saying that the government had left the economy in “a mess”. Well, of course he did. Part of the job spec for Leader of the Opposition clearly states that “the successful candidate must show a willingness, in responding to the Budget statement, to repeat the statements of all his predecessors that the economy is in the worst state ever. This must be repeated even when the Leader of the Opposition cannot truthfully claim that he has any solutions of his own or, indeed, would have done anything different had he been in government.”
So, job done, David.
























Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:02 pm
Or why don’t we commit to lower taxes on those who live in poverty, bringing the poorest in this country out of taxation altogether? Raising the tax free allowance to £12K or so would also make EVERYBODY better off…
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:09 pm
I’d have been more impressed if he kicked the tax rate for MPs up.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:15 pm
Ah ignoring the elephant in the room are we Tom?
What about the debt? the £600 billion that your government is projecting?
No thoughts on that – no I thought not.
No thoughts on the mistakes made that led us here – considering we have had a LABOUR government for the last 12 years -no I thought not.
Brown has been careering towards the cliff since 2001. Last year he jumped off dragging us with him. Now we’re falling and no one knows where we will land.
Prepare for the new dark ages and it is all Labour’s fault!
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:16 pm
Very loyal Tom, well done. Unfortunately for your party, more people are going to disagree with this post than agree with it. I know, I know – that just means that more people are wrong. Right?
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:25 pm
Send Gordon the shirt off your back
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:29 pm
I think Tom needs his medication. Nurse, the screens…
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:32 pm
I think you’d have been better off staying silent on this one: defending something as totally dishonest and indefensible as this budget rarely has any upside…….
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:34 pm
Or am I being too cynical?
Not at all. You can see it. I can see it. Your Masters can’t see it !
Time to change sides Tom before it’s too late.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:37 pm
“But I hope we’ll see a commitment in a future manifesto to return to the 40 per cent tax level for higher earners when circumstances allow.”
I don’t. Once we’re back into growth territory, that tax burden should be removed by lifting the personal allowance. The previous tax system was regressive and in need of a (revenue neutral?) rebalancing before the crisis even begun.
The best way to do that is to make the bottom end of the employment market pay better, while at the same time putting more money in the pockets of those more likely to spend it…
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:44 pm
“Do we need another 14 months of this Government of the Living Dead”?
best thing Cameron’s done for ages……
Tom. Would Brown be forced to call an early General Election if circmstances oblige the IMF to step in to rescue us from this cabal of profligate, incompetent, unrepentant buffoons…..?
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:48 pm
“Or am I being too cynical?”
What, about politicians and second-hand car dealers? Surely it’s not possible to be TOO cynical?
Seriously though, why didn’t Darling Alistair announce the shelving of New Lab’s pet projects like ID cards to save money?
Nearly everyone had left the room when John Redwood gave a brilliant and witty talk. He said cancelling the ID card scheme was a “no-brainer”.
He also suggested that we should get our full EU rebate again.
I suggest we get out the cursed thing altogether, but surely Redwood’s suggestion is the very least Darling could have done.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:50 pm
Mixed feelings on 50%. Like – “why not 60%?” and alternatively “why not 75%?” When you gross £150,000 you take home towards £100,000 scot free. At £200,000 it’ll be about £125,000.
I am joking of course. We need Thatcherite top tax of 96% is what.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:55 pm
Please bear in mind that everything I say is predicated upon my intense dislike of punitive taxation. In other words, the idea that we are taxed to the extent we are, by any colour of politician makes me fume.
That said, Darling is like a cop who comes round and tells you that Granny is dead. Granny spontaneously combusted. The trouble is, she was babysitting your kids and the time and they perished too.
Poor old Collars and Cuffs don’t match did his best to bluff the unbluffable.
It’s very difficult to dislike Darling. (Do you know any different. Tom?)but I continue to try my best.
Darling has no option, with Mad King Gord behind him, to continue to shaft us with a rusty poker.
Once again, the burden of this fantasy world will fall upon ordinary decent working people.
I am beyond anger. All I can do is wait for the General Election.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 5:56 pm
“The 50p tax rate was a shock, I’ll admit. Does this represent the end of New Labour? I don’t think so…. higher taxes, when they’re imposed to raise revenue for a specific purpose and aren’t being levied for their own sake don’t of themselves mean that we want to return to our Old Labour ways. When national insurance was raised in the 2001 parliament, for instance, that was specifically to raise cash for the NHS: in other words, A Good Thing.”
—————–
You may not think this signals the end of New Labour, but I disagree. Not only do I think it signals the end of New Labour, I think (taken with the rest of the tax rises Darling announced) it also signals the end of Labour as a potential party of Government.
Raising the NI insurance rate would have been unnecessary if Labour had reformed the NHS instead of trying to micro-manage it from Whitehall. So raising THAT tax was not a GOOD THING. It may have pumped additional money into the NHS but it was necessary because of a failure to reform the institution.
The 50p tax increase will raise very little in revenue and will quite likely lead to a brain drain. People earning sufficient to pay that level of tax can generally transfer their skills elsewhere. This was just Gordon playing his usual political games – with other peoples’ money – in order to try and wrong-foot the Tories.
The electorate is wise to it now. The headline from the Budget isn’t a justifiable 50p tax rise, its the catastrophic levels of debt Gordon/Labour has got the country into – with nothing of any worth to show for it – and no credible plan to get us out of it.
Labour ALWAYS trashes the UK economy – and guess what – Labour has done it again!
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:02 pm
Do you honestly think the higher tax rates will be paid? Those affected will simply leave or move their money away!
And claiming that you will make efficiency savings – aye right. Not being done until AFTER the election to ensure the pension heavy, work light, and frankly IDLE civil servants at my local jobcentre will vote for Labour in the expectation that once returned the ‘efficiency savings’ (which Labour call cuts when done by Tories) will be quietly dropped….
The debt is the problem – and if Cameron talks about the mess left by Labour it is because time and time again we’ve been here before. Tories spend years sorting out the mess, Labour then pretend to be reformed and get in and then mess it up again!
Election now please and we’ll see how much people really love Brown and Labour
Methinks you’ll be OK because you’re a good guy and I do hope you get re-elected. Brown? Jail or oblivion please!
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:09 pm
Tom, when are you going to stop trying to justify Browns disasterous decisions?
The increase top rate tax will not raise a significant amount of revenue (compared to debt.), will mean that those wealth creators in international business and finance stay in the states where taxes will be more reasonable and will in effect tax aspiration. It was PATHETICALLY POLITICAL, nothing else!
I don’t understand your ‘safe seaters’ in the labour party. Everyday Gordon Brown remains in office this side of a recession only damages the party more and makes it unelectable for longer. Why don’t you guys force an election, lose it, and limit the damage the party’s long term prospects…..i just don’t understand?!?! Surely, beyond you loyalty to your constituents that is your loyalty to the party you join and love???????
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:17 pm
Tom, i need a better explanation of the 50p tax rate. I see no reason in it? it will raise what? a few hundred million quid, optimistically a billion? but that’s still less than the petrol tax increase! So what’s the point!
I warn you, these “evil” people earning these sums are not going to stick around, since this whole folly won’t raise that much, I can only assume the reason is politics, and the worst type.
In my case I’m highly skilled, I worked damn hard to get where I am now, I create complex algorithms for clients and it takes a huge amount of my time. For this I get paid quite well, in a few years I fully expect to be right up there in the few percent making a large amount of money, maybe not 150k+ just yet but I fully intend to become a software architect which do command that region of pay. But! here’s the crux of the matter what is to stop the government at 150k? I worked bloody hard to get where I am and the rewards have to be high to offset the sacrifices. Now I’m thinking, in a few years as I go up the ladder why should I stay in the UK?
It stinks of have you got aspiration? are you planning to succeed in life? Do you want to be the best of the best? Why bother! The government will just take 50% of your earnings if you do.
Screw that, I may just follow many of my compatriots and look for work abroad where I’m valued rather than vilified and taken to the cleaners for the incompetence of people who should have saved some bloody money, instead of pi**ing all away, Domes, NHS computer systems, ID cards, restructuring after restructuring , PFI this, PFI that, invest it all now now now.
We’ll see, but if it satisfies those supporters of the party who hate people like me, then good for you all, I hope it’s worth it.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:45 pm
My last sentence again, in English this time….
Surely, even beyond your loyalty to your constituents (who are suffering more and more everyday), is your loyalty to the party which you love and are a member of???
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:53 pm
Don’t worry Tom, it’s all carp.
Mr darling as usual does not understand sums, can’t do forecasts and it is HIGHLY likely the deficits in future years will be much bigger than forecast.
That’s on paper. in reality, the whole edifice is likely to crash around ou ears when the banks need Bailout 4 , the world goes on strike lending us money and real cuts in spending have to be made.
Now I hope I am wrong but Darling and forecasts have a dishonourable association.
When I was a Finance Director, I used to see draft budgets like this. Written purely to avoid doing the nasty things that REALITY needs. Any executive where I worked who did this twice was effectively saying ” I am an incompetent: fire me please”. And was duly fired.
(MD, FD the lot were cleared out.
As I say, I hope I am wrong. But I fear I am correct.
Lots of pain for everyone ahead.
(And note I am NOT making a political point but a simple economic one).
I can see in about 7 months time emergency spending cuts.. REAL cuts, not “efficiency carp”..
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 6:59 pm
I understand Saint Blair is considering becoming a Tax exile. Was this Gordons real aim?
I suspect when Gormless gets his job at Goldman Sachs he will vote for the Conservatives to lower the rate to a sensible level.
Tax is emotional and people do not mind paying a fair tax. Under Thatcher and Reagan taxes were reduced, but Tax take went up. Go figure dunderhead.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 7:18 pm
I trust that all non-smokers are already on their knees in grateful thanks at the EXTRA £950 million pounds which will be raised by myself and my fellow smokers in the forthcoming year.
It’s a pity that the 50p tax rate involved the breaking of yet another manifesto promise.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 7:18 pm
I’d agree that special higher tax-bands are counterporductive. They were counter-productive before and they’ll be counter-productive again. The amount they raise, in theory, is trivial, and in practice less than in theory. But the damage they do is not trivial. They encourage a poisonous mind-set of punishing prosperity and poision aspiration. So why now? What has changed? The leadership has changed, that’s what.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 7:32 pm
Some years ago after a company merger I inherited a company which was profitable on paper. It was anything but, the previous managers were fired and I got a company with a £1m overdraft and nine months worth of unpaid bills.
The parent company had to give us cash to get things working, I then spent the next 18 months making the business profitable by cutting unnecessary expenditure, charging correctly, recovering unpaid invoices, and paying back the debt.
That’s how things work in the real world. The managers of this “company” have to be sacked and we have to get in people who understand you can’t spend money you haven’t got. This budget was more of the same – you made a valiant defence, Tom, but you can’t defend a government that is well on the way to making this country bankrupt. How long before we make a trip to the IMF? Not long I reckon.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 7:37 pm
So, other than the fact that the Conservatives would have controlled cash and capital so that the banks couldn’t have overleveraged as much as they did, and that they wouldn’t have been running a deficit during the biggest boom in years (they were lying about wanting to match your spending, its only because they thought being like Blair was the only vote winner). Yes Tom, what would they have done differently?
Still, they say the people get the government they deserve. After falling for Blair’s ‘cuts equals fewer nurses’ in 2005, we sure deserved you lot.
By the way, can I get a letter of apology for my grandchildren? They will probably be born in 30 years or so. I’d like something I can give them to explain why it is nearly all of their earnings are going on paying for Gordon Brown’s time in office.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 8:34 pm
Thank you Darling? Our esteemed, (someone must hold him in esteem I suppose), Chancellor has just presented the most boring political suicide note in history.
It is long past time that Gordon and his sock puppets exited stage left.
Wednesday 22 April 2009 at 9:38 pm
What comes to mind, about the electorate, then the government and then the party are mutatis mutandis the immortal words of Richard Motram…which I wont repeat. A good day to bury bad news indeed.
Thursday 23 April 2009 at 12:05 am
how come last summer when Darling was saying the economy was in the worst state for 60 years – everyone went spare. How very dare he! And now, when we need a dull, grey accountant to quietly sort things out he still gets kicked in the tuchus. Not that I blame anyone, he just has to take it. Like the quiet kid that does his homework and gets bullied as a result, Darling just has to carry on and hope that he’s doing the right thing. Although the car thing does remind me of what they did to rugby union to improve the game – not really that good in theory but utterly terrible in practice.
Thursday 23 April 2009 at 3:46 am
I’m an admirer of your blog. Can you explain to me why I feel so pissed off with this budget? In the midst of the worst economic crisis in our lives all the Chancellor can do is 1) delay difficult policies until after the General Election (scorched earth/screw the Tories?) 2) play politics (with the 50% tax rate).
I’m so furious that I hope that this government is obliterated at the election, so that it can never rise again to inflict such devastation on this country again.
It’s a terrible thing to say, given the noble calling of the Labour movement, and the need to have an effective opposition to the next Tory government, but Brown has killed socialism as a force of decent politics.
Can you tell me why you should survive?
Thursday 23 April 2009 at 7:35 am
“Today’s tax hike was, presumably, unavoidable in the current economic circumstances. ”
Actually, if Blair and Brown had saved money during the boom years, this would be entirely avoidable.
With a few exceptions, all people admit their own infallibility. However Blair and Brown refused to accept that anything they did was wrong. Which is why they believed they could continue to borrow when most of the other major economies were doing the opposite.
The result is not only higher taxes (probably for the next 2 terms of government, whoever gets in), but major cuts in public spending, even if they do sell all of the £220Billion worth of Gilts required this year, (and recent sales suggest this isn’t a sure-fire certainty).
So what happens if they don’t ? And what happens if Darling’s optimistic economic forecast doesn’t come to fruition ?
You might claim that Cameron wouldn’t do any different if he was in the same situation. But since it was Labour policies that have left us with the largest debt of any British government ever, it’s not really a fair comparison.
Thursday 23 April 2009 at 5:56 pm
Sorry Tom. but since you are on of the 650 or so people who can most easily affect the future of this country this is poor. The trouble with most MP and Labour in particular is they can’t analyse a simple set of facts.
The annual budget deficit is £175 billion, but the government receives only £94 billion a year from income tax, and the extra tax from increasing the tax on those earning over £150,000 is only £1 billion, so even confiscating all income over £150k would only raise 1.5% of the gap.
You would have to *triple* the income tax take to fill the gap, and since a large amount of that is raised at 40% that simply is never going to happen.
The *only* solution is to cut spending because there simply isn’t enough production in the country to pay for this government’s schemes.
In less civilised times we would have set sail to create an Empire to garner resources to pay for such largesse, but that doesn’t seem to fit the modern era.
Saturday 25 April 2009 at 7:16 pm
Time you woke up to reality Tom. Your Government (or rather your Party and the idiot Brown) have almost bankrupted the State. Darling tells us the PSBR will be £175 billion; he tells us the economy contracted in the last quarter by 1.6%. On Friday it turned out to be 1.9% and the City (who I would sooner believe) say borrowing will be 220+ billion. Frankly all Darlings projections were a fantasy and all he is doing is leaving a bigger mess and disaster for the next Government.
As Cameron said Brown has managed to double the entire national debt ever since the Bank of England was formed 300 years ago. And you think all of this mess is something to be proud of ? I can’t quite decide if you are a fool or a knave.
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