I WILL not be placing a bet on the outcome of the election for Speaker, but here are my initial thoughts.

First of all, despite the scepticism of some readers, the next Speaker will absolutely not come from the Labour benches. No doubt there will be one or two candidates from my side of the House but they will not win.

Every Labour colleague I have spoken to so far is agreed the next Speaker must be a Tory. There is some support, I think, for a LibDem, provided it’s Vince Cable, but as far as I’m aware, he’s ruling himself out. If that’s not true, I apologise and will correct the record at the first opportunity.

Many colleagues on both sides believe Michael Martin’s successor should not be a “Tory grandee”, which is bad news for Sir Alan Haselhurst and Sir George Young. The name most often uttered in Labour circles is John Bercow. One newer Tory told me this afternoon that he reckons the successful candidate’s name might not even be being mentioned yet.

I am strongly inclined towards one particular candidate at the moment, but I’m not going to say who it is until we know exactly who’s in the running.