And another thing…

The way polls calculate the support for parties is interesting. It is not the percentage with a voting intention but the % of those certain to vote. Many of our voters have not switched they are just sitting it out at present. The question is can Labour motivate them to vote

All Cameron needs to do is promise a referendum,without caveats,and you will not see the tories for dust.

I bet you wish you had access to such a turbo button in the PLP.

What have I got to lose? Er, money!

Who would form the cabinet? I’m not sure there’ll be enough frontbench MPs left in the Labour Party after the next election…

Tom, I said more or less the same myself yesterday… http://www.bobpiper.co.uk/2009/06/cold_comfort.php

… so I don’t know whether they did hear it here first. Two weeks before the 2005 election the opinion polls showed the Tories on 40%. They are still on 40%. All the rebranding and Cameron schmooze have not attracted a single voter fro those disaffected with Labour. If our vote returns… the Tories are toast.

If….

Labour is lower in the polls than I can remember. We are an unpopular government.

Duh! You think?

Wait until the results come in tomorrow – I think you might be shocked at just how “unpopular” your party is. LOL

Oh hang on! This isn’t Wednesday is it? ;o)

OK . . . the day after tomorrow then.

“Assuming a mere handful of Scottish seats, that is a very big mountain to climb.”

That’s a huge assumption, given the shoogly peg that Mundell’s jacket is hanging on.

Incidentally, Tom is your seat safe from the SNP?

I think I have to agree with you. Cameron has looked good – well not to me personally as I like a bit of policy chat which he doesn’t have a lot of – compared with what is happening within Labour right now. I also think that Brown looks bad for another reason and that is because Blair was such a complete phoney. Brown is a very different type of person and despite his faults I think he is pretty much being himself. Blair was playing a role and there was, ultimately, nothing about him that was genuine.

Brown could survive if he gathers his battered troops together after the Euro Elections, gets on with his re-shuffle and starts to kick ass. People are looking for not just change but actual reform including the voting system incidentally. If he doesn’t get this right by spelling out to the Labour Party that they must work together for real otherwise they are dead and buried then they are……..well, dead and buried.

“if I were you, I’d throw down a few quid. What have you got to lose?”

A few quid, maybe?

Yes Tom, a lot of what you are saying is good analysis. When Labour won their landslide victory in 1997, the Conservatives were practically decimated. I predicted that the LibDems would be the opposition by 2010, and if it had not been for Iraq, that may well have been the case.

Iraq was the main culprit for the beginning of Labours downfall. Then your party finished it off nicely with Brown moving in like a third world monarchy or dictatorship – the guy next door taking over when the guy who had gone mental left.

Cameron represents nothing for me. The Conservative party is something from the archives. Our whole voting system is knackered. Until there is serious change, I emigrate to Spain, or die, I will use my statutory right to vote for anything other than LabConLibGreenBNP, which at this present moment is UKIP.

Have you read the front pages of tomorrows papers Tom.

It does NOT look good for your Party, does it.

Do you STILL think betting on a Labour victory is worth it?

Will the last person to leave the country please turn off the EU-approved light bulb?

To be honest; you are quite right. It will be a high mountain to climb. While not an advocate for PR, it does concern me that even if the Conservatives win with 40% of the vote to Labour’s 30%, we are not going to be assured to be the majority party (let alone a working majority.)

I don’t agree. The hatred of this government is not confined to this page. I live in the South-west and the West Midlands. In both places the hatred is palpable, i agree that the public aren’t in love with Cameron in the same way that they were with Blair but even the hatred of the Major government didn’t meet that of the current government. If you doubt this i suggest you except the safe labour seats and try door stepping marginals in the west midlands; if you lose these seats you lose the election!

Add to this the direct comparison that people will make between Brown and Cameron for PM and i think that a Tory win is inevitable. So are you going to put your money where your mouth is Tom?

“What have you got to lose?”

My self-respect?

Get me some of what that man is smoking. Seriously, I know you’re optimistic but surely the best you could hope for would be a hung parliament.

There is a perfectly good reason why the Tories are hovering around 40% in every poll. Tony Blair only won 43% of the vote in 1997, and he was very popular against a very unpopular John Major. Mrs Thatcher won 44% in 1979. The polls are typically quite accurate at predicting the Tory vote, so if Cameron really has got 40-odd% of the vote he’s got enough (no post war PM has ever had >50% of the vote). Blair only polled 50s because the polls overestimated Labour.

Tom, Just how can you say this. Just face up to it all. Its finished, its all over for Labour. Lets see Thursdays results and then compare notes.

Interesting post Tom except for the elephant in the room.

Brown.

He is toxic but intent on staying in power no matter what. As the Labour Party showed last year they lack the killer instinct of Tory backbenchers. They bottled it last year so what’s to say they will oust Brown this year?

Secondly who would replace Brown? The Postman who admits he isnt up to the job is favourite and he would certainly stem the loss but has he or anyone else got the drive or ideas to turn such a dramatic low position in the polls into a win? On wonky calculations he would have at most 7-8 months. Now a week is a long time in politics but that seems a stretch.

Thirdly many Labour MPs are now tainted by years of voting wrongly – ID Cards, Trident etc etc. How are they going to fool people that they have changed? Would Johnson even find enough capable MPs to fill a cabinet? I can name perhaps half a dozen MPs that impress. Just.

Finally you are likely banking on that your government can gasp on for another 11 months and that by then the economy will be on the upturn and everything will be rosy.

Sadly we will still have a massive whole in the economy, massive debt, tax increases, public sector job cuts and funding cuts. This has already been announced based on Darlings over optimistic figures which means its going to be even worse.

Do you take the electorate for idiots? Do you think they won’t notice another 10p on fuel?

Fact is Tom that Labour won’t win even though the odds are stacked against the Tories.

What should be most worrying is that the Tories aren’t popular simply because many still havent forgiven them for a government that has been out of power for over a decade. what does that say about Labour? Even if you manage to stay as the opposition (touch and go) you will be out of power for a decade at best.

What a waste. Labour could have delivered on its promises and they have failed. It’s over and people like me won’t be returning to Labour for many many years.

(This isnt another flag blog is it?)

My money? Shirt? Sorry, you are not winning the next General Election.

I think Sunday’s results are going to shellshock you if you think there is any possibility whatsoever of the public returning a Labour government again.

It’s going to be a well deserved spanking.

Thanks for the motivation, Tom.

“But Tony Blair was genuinely popular as leader of the opposition”

I had to pick myself off the floor after that gag.

Rewriting history?

Remember all those labour aprty hacks waving union jacks outside No.10 shaking hands with the smiling one. If only they knew how he’s lead this country into disgrace after disgrace that has led directly to the current situation.

Keep clicking those red heels Tom, you never know. until the fat speaker sings.

I agree with you that a Labour win at the next election is not unthinkable. However, you have to think very hard to work out how it might happen.

One way it might happen is an event which transforms politics. Something which totally discredits the Tories or Cameron personally could lead to a Labour victory. Or, conversely, something which enables Gordon Brown to show decisive leadership might also result in a Labour win. After all, if a week is a long time in politics, 52 of them is an age.

A more plausible reason, however, to think that Labour might still win is that national opinion polls are not necessarily an accurate indicator of what might happen in a general election. They do not, for instance, take account of the geographical distribution of support, whilst the general election does. Nor can opinion polls accurately account for the way people think once they enter the polling booth. Someone might be happy to tell a polster that they will vote for Cameron, but when standing in the polling booth decide that, on balance, they would rather a Labour government. A good analogy for this might be the distinction between blanks and live ammunition – you are going to be much more careful casting a ballot which matters than giving an opinion to a polster.

Yet given that a decline in Labour support is a sustained long-term trend, a further decline, leading to a Tory win seems quite likely. This is especially so given that the employment situation, in particular, is likely to remain in decline for the rest of the year.

Of course, the PM could always be replaced…

I’ll take odds of 50/1. But the reality is that the great mass of likely voters have developd a contempt for Gordon Brown that will not be expunged in the next year: with practically every appearance and utterance he seems to invite ridicule. With a proper leader Labour might have a better chance, but unemployment will still be rising, the government finances will still be deteriorating and the world economy will still be in the doldrums. These are not conditions that will encourage voters to vote for the party that has been there through all the mess, ‘making the right decisions for the country’ or not.

(Why does the Prime Minister employ such truly duff speechwriters, or does he ignore them, like he does most of his other advisors?)

Well I know my next MP will be the Labour candidate. However, I have reajised that for the past year I have been irrationally backing GB, hoping that he will string together at least 3 good decisions. However, he, and his cabinet ave gone out of their way to confound me. A Labour decimated of it’s big personalities, under the current cull, will be in no position to turn this tide. GB seems likely still to never be elected as Prime Minister.

The best Gordon can do, is be very bold, and leave a legacy of solid reform, while he still has the reigns.

I’m happy to bet you, Tom, £50 that with Gordon Brown in charge Labour will not win the next election.

… which is why i am sticking to my own prediction of a Cameron victory with a majority in single figures. He and his party have not sealed the deal, but crucially New Labour are still in deep trouble.

It would seem the Guardian editorial for tomorrow disagrees with you assertion.

I’ve been saying something similar to friends for sometime: Tory victory isn’t assured. The electoral maths are tricky… those opinion polls need to translate nationally and that isn’t necessarily how it works.

Also, if we have a swathe of independents on the ballot papers that could well hurt the Tories in England more than Labour. And when you chuck in potentially good gains for the Liberals… well, it’s a lot of ifs and possibilities.

Tory victory isn’t inevitable. But this govt (which I support) needs to show a bit more verve and unity RIGHT NOW if it is to stand a chance of even slim victory.

So Dan,

It’s all about what’s expedient for Labour then. . . playing the numbers . . . seeing who can “hurt the Tories” most.

Nothing at all to do with “Democracy” of the “Will of the people” who clearly want an immediate General Election.

And you Labour supporters wonder why your party is in free fall?

Tom

You should be on the stage. You really should. You’re wasted in Westminster and just think, in the West End you’ll be able to make jokes about GB without being censured.

Tories rarely above 40%? Take a look at ukpollingreport.co.uk
Apart from one rather strange result, the gap gets regularly closer and closer to 20%. That’s just simply not anywhere near scalable for labour with your current leader. Are you actually predicting that GB will be gone? Then, who knows, just maybe (but pretty unlikely)……

Speaking to friends, colleagues, sports club members, people I bump into etc here, Chorley will go Tory. It’s a key marginal (and not really all that marginal).

Good for a laugh though. Cheered me up no end.

What have I got to lose:

My civil liberties? I know in labour/BBC world the regulation of our everyday lives is acceptable; because you know best. But I am so heartily sick of your party’s puritanism. I am sure you won’t get it but the need for a license to have a sing or hear a band in a pub sums Labour up.

I am sure you will dismiss this: but my family from my great grandma down my family voted Labour for years. None will ever again. You are control freaks, you are incompetent, you have created a nation of middle class sinecurists working in quangos; all on the backs on the taxes of working people.

Tom,
I’ll accept any bet up to £1000 and give you two points better than the big bookies.
Make my day!
Regards,
Ed.

Well said, Tom. I have had 40 years of watching politics and my political antennae are quite sharp. My gut instinct has correctly predicted the outcome of most elections since 1968.

David Cameron’s Conservatives should be on at least 50% of the polls under the current circumstances. That they are not is a failure of his leadership and their (lack of) policies. My feeling is that there are many, many people who are desperate for the Labour party to pull through these difficult times, offer a clear vision for the future, celebrate their successes over the last 12 years, of which there are many, and challenge the Tories on their plans for the future, which remain vague at best, and non-existent, or kept under wraps, at worst.

For example. I have just watched William Hague on Question Time, following an excellent performance from John Denham. Jeremy Paxman asked two straightforward questions.

1. If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified before the next election, which the Conservatives then win, what will they do? No answer. They haven’t decided. “We will not let it rest there”, unexplained. But they want our votes on Thursday?

2. Is Lord Ashcroft, who is currently pumping millions into marginal seats on behalf of the Tories now a resident tax-payer, which was a condition, set out by Hague himself, of his receiving a peerage. No answer. “There is no reason to suppose that he has not adhered to the conditions that were laid out at the time.” He hasn’t been asked. There is no proof either way.

This is the first time for ages that I have seen anyone in the press really challenge a Tory about their policies. And answer came there none. Most newspapers, even the Guardian to their shame, seem to be rolling over and accepting the inevitable. Even sucking up to the next PM. Such an easy ride the man is getting.

Currently Geoff Hoon (sp?) and Alastair Darling are under censure, having claimed some hundreds of pounds for home insurance, TV licence, service charge that were paid in advance, then not repaid when their circumstances changed. Mistakes I can understand as oversights, but mistakes nonetheless.

But I don’t understand why I, as a diligent taxpayer, am subsidising second homes that are, in effect, large country mansions, not serviceable flats or modest houses. Or why an MP should be able to claim mortgage interest on a property that is then sold for such a huge profit that the capital gains tax amounts to £180,000.

Will Labour win the next election? Undecided.
Is it in the bag for the Tories? No.
Would I throw down a few quid on a Labour victory? You bet!

Heads to bed, anticipating loads of angry retorts in the morning. Apologies to you for over long post. Chin up!

I’m not sure how you define “reality”, but it will poke it’s head above the parapet on Thursday and may give you cause to recant.

In the meantime, I accept your bet and will pledge £100, to a charity of your choice, if you do likewise, and bet that for certain, Labour will not have a majority in the next General Election against your assertion that it will.

It’s called calling your bluff.

Are you on?

Ps. no cheating and filing a dodgy receipt to the Fees Office for “necessary wagers”

A better bet would be that Labour will not be in opposition after the next election, if You know what I mean.

If our vote returns… the Tories are toast.
Says Sponge B O B.

Yeah right! Hahahahahahaha

That’s a BIG bloody “IF’ then, . . . B O B . . . the kind of “IF” that mountaineers dream of planting a flag on top of . . .
The kind of “IF” that men in rockets once visited . . .
In short . . . the kind of “IF” that you only see in “IF only we didn’t have a corrupt Labour Government; things might not be SO BAD” LOL

Yeah B O B! . . . “IF” only! LOL

I think we all know who’s going to be the “Toast” at the General Election . . . and it ain’t going to be the Tories mate.

Tom

I’ll be honest, I don’t normally read your blog because I think that many of your arguments are just plain wrong. However, the analysis in this piece is bang on. Although I do think the Tories will win it. Just.

I loath almost every aspect of this government with a passion, and yet I can’t on my conscience bring myself to vote for the Conservatives. I’m sorry, I just don’t trust Cameron. I caught him on the radio this morning, giving another meaningless platitude about Europe. It’s a shame the Tory Party doesn’t listen to it’s grassroots supporters – if it did then they’d be riding high on 60%, not 60something.

Anyway, I thought about your proposition of placing a bet, and it turns out that if I open a betting account, they’ll match my first bid of up to £50 with another £50 credit. So, bet £50 on the Conservatives to win, have £50 credited to my account, and spend it on a Labour majority bet. If the Conservatives win, I win £20 after costs. If Labour win, I win 750 after costs. So thanks for the tip, Tom. Who says that there’s no such thing as a free lunch? =P

“Wait until the results come in tomorrow – I think you might be shocked at just how “unpopular” your party is. LOL”

Not sure what the “LOL” is for Silent Hunter. The results of the Euro Elections are pretty much a foregone conclusion so there will be no surprises. I would actually say they are largely irrelevant. I don’t think they will bring forth a date for a general election and I’m hoping I’m right about that as its the last thing we need right now. What it should do, I hope, is force all Parties forward on the issue of real reform and real policies. Let’s face it, Cameron is going to have to produce some policies at some point surely? Let’s face something else too. Until Brown allowed Cameron to bait him about a general election some time ago the Tories were considering dumping Cameron because he was having no impact on voters. His Party didn’t have a policy between the lot of them. (That hasn’t changed much eiher.) The only thing to change Cameron’s ratings is Brown’s performance and I’d say that is no recommendation of Cameron as PM! Labour will crash on Thursday, that’s a given, but its how Brown deals with it that will dictate if he survives to fight and win the next General Election.

Well Tom, I’ve got to hand it to you. You sure know how to get a lot of posts on your blog.

The Cameron factor doesn’t really matter. Whether he’s good or bad, the next election is all about voting against GB and Labour. That’s what happens to the governing party in UK politics after 2 or 3 terms in office. First of all they lose touch with the punters in their desire to hold onto power, and secondly, people just get fed up with the same old waffle.

Brown had his chance to call an election after he took over from Blair. He could’ve taken a leaf out of Major’s election campaign victory and got up close and personal with the electorate on a soapbox. Instead, he blew it.

Incidentally Tom, this cycle can be broken if real constitutional reform were pushed through, but I don’t think either of the big two have the guts for this. The Tories can see the finishing line now, and will say anything to get there. You can be sure that any commitments they make now will be watered down or shelved when they take power. What a pity.

It is staggering that the Conservatives don’t seem to be able to get above 40%. But what is even more staggering is that there are still as many as 18% who will vote Labour. Seriously, what is wrong with these people?

You make an assumption Tom.

That labour will retain its Scottish fiefdoms, given the rise of the SNP this is very debatable.
Let’s assume that the SNP crush labour in Scotland, as seems probable at present. Then we can remove the large number of Scottish labour MPs from the equation and Wales isn’t as secure for labour as it was.

So it is who wins England and if the conservatives maintain 40% overall then this isn’t unlikely.

Your best bet is a lib/lab/snp coalition, but that isn’t likely.

You get more like Squealer every day, Tom.

I will be spoiling both my ballots. Both out of principle, and because every single candidate/party has let me down on specific local issues, which makes it easier for me than most people, I’ll admit. I can state to anyone who questions my actions that it *is* better than not voting, or voting for the ‘least worse’. In the former case, I would be indistinguishable from the politically disaffected and plain lazy, and in the latter, it’s clear that if you take part in the ‘democratic’ process, you signify your acceptance of the result, even if your choice doesn’t win. This was supposed to make sense once, because whoever won, it was understood that they served all of their constituents, even the ones who voted for someone else. That’s no longer the case, because most of my local councillors barely show their faces, let alone do anything, and my MP clearly believes anyone who questions him has forfeited the right to a response. Convenient logic for him, but wrong.

I’ll be explaining on my papers that in Barton & Tredworth (a ward with a very low turnout) any vote is wasted without serious reform, or even just an understanding that this isn’t how councillors should (be allowed to) behave. As for the MEPs, I never hear anything about mine until election time, and the obvious alternative, the Greens, are way too up themselves. On ‘Any Questions?’ and ‘Question Time’, I heard and watched Caroline Lucas putting political point scoring ahead of principles. Bring back the joint leadership.

A plague on *all* their houses ’til they get real.

Heh. Nick Clegg (for I assume it is he) just used ‘A plague on all their houses’ on Today…

Shame our local LDs are as much a part of the problem.

Tom

As my constituency MP, I am worried that you are working too hard/getting too little sleep, because this post is total fantasy. Total and utter lunacy.

Ross

Thank you.

You predict a labour win, but don’t mention who would be PM? Am I reading too far between the lines?

AEG
Wednesday 3 June 2009 at 1:12 am
Tom

I’ll be honest, I don’t normally read your blog because I think that many of your arguments are just plain wrong. However, the analysis in this piece is bang on. Although I do think the Tories will win it. Just.

I loath almost every aspect of this government with a passion, and yet I can’t on my conscience bring myself to vote for the Conservatives. I’m sorry, I just don’t trust Cameron. I caught him on the radio this morning, giving another meaningless platitude about Europe. It’s a shame the Tory Party doesn’t listen to it’s grassroots supporters – if it did then they’d be riding high on 60%, not 60something.

Anyway, I thought about your proposition of placing a bet, and it turns out that if I open a betting account, they’ll match my first bid of up to £50 with another £50 credit. So, bet £50 on the Conservatives to win, have £50 credited to my account, and spend it on a Labour majority bet. If the Conservatives win, I win £20 after costs. If Labour win, I win 750 after costs. So thanks for the tip, Tom. Who says that there’s no such thing as a free lunch? =P
****************************************

Turning a hundred quid into twenty quid.

Nice one.

Tosh, Labour Sorry New Labour is finished. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it.

Trying to pretend otherwise makes you look a fool.

Still – good luck in the reshuffle – I hope you get your trainset back (for a few weeks at least)

Well Tom if you are THAT confident give us the General Election right now to prove you right then!

LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE

I’ve been posting for months about how Labour can secure a fourth term.

You need to ditch Brown,
ditch ID cards,
promise an immediate referendum on the Lisbon treaty,
stop trying to go for 90 day detention +
reduce public spending asap.

A spectacular u-turn on about a dozen policies would do the Labour party a power of good and bring you back into a middle ground of concensus with the Conservatives, shooting many foxes simultaneously.

You say people don’t like Cameron as much as blair – but surely this is about once bitten twice shy. Blair showed the PR / rebranding of a party does not necessarily mean he will do what he says – remember whiter than white! People don’t like tories as much as a charismatic socialist – it doesnt mean labour have a hope at the next election on 18%

Hi Tom, I hope you are well and rested. As someone who is Tory leaning, I don’t want to give you too much encouragement but Mr. Cameron needs to get some policies down on paper. He is reminding me too much of Tony Blair, insomuch as lots of wise philisophical words that appeal to all and sundry but no real substance behind it. Take the hunting ban. That now is not going to be part of the next Tory manifesto and if he can’t nail a flag to this minor mask what are the major policies going to be?

A lot of what Tom says is factual.

Fortunately for them, Gordon Brown is succeeding in destroying the Labour Party as an electoral force, and if he continues on – and he will as Labour MPs do not have the will, the means or the nous to ditch him – he will succeed utterly.

If the Conservatives win, the Boundary Commission changes will ensure Labour will be out of power fro a generation…

And to show what a shambles the Government are, read this:

“UK ‘needs emergency Budget’
Britain needs an emergency Budget immediately after the general election as public spending is set to soar to the highest level in post-war history, a leading think-tank has warned.

The Policy Exchange has advised the next government that it must be prepared to make radical and immediate cuts to spending plans or face a serious risk of a full-scale sovereign debt crisis. In a new paper, it has also shown that only a third of the impending surge in government spending can be traced back to measures intended to combat the recession, with the rest going on increased budgets for ballooning government departments”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5431041/UK-needs-emergency-Budget.html

Yep. And Tim Henman might come back and win Wimbledon.

Tom,
The phrase “Pissing in the wind” comes to mind.

Cameron will not be able to seal the deal until his manifesto is launched, at which point the voters will finally have all the information they’re likely to get about what vision Cameron has.

Until then, let’s all enjoy the collapse of the government.

Yes, it unfair, isn’t it?

In 2005, the Conservatives polled 150,000 more votes than Labour in England, and yet Labour ‘won’ a majority of 67. How comes ?

And how comes Tom, an MP representing Glasgow, gets to decide about the schools and hospitals in my constituency in London…and yet my local MP cannot do the same and affect Tom’constituents ?

The English electorate are coming for Labour next time, in even greater numbers

You’re wrong about Cameron. People have made up their minds about him and they like him. It’s the rest of the Conservative Party their not sure about. In many circles we are still seen as the ‘nasty party’. The Sun readers don’t trust us. Also there is a swathe of people who just wouldn’t vote Tory. Have you ever seen the Bridget Jones movie? The bit where she is horrified to discover Mark D’Arcy is a Conservative is typical of a certain type of urban professional viewpoint. The moats and duck houses of the expenses row hasn’t done anything to stop that and it means that we are still not guarenteed a win.

Tom

Looks like Hazel Belaers disagrees with you too…she has just resigned.

You will have to put Dennis Skinner in the Cabinet at this rate
:)

looks like hazel blears disagrees with you Tom

I am afraid your Fuhrer is going to be a bit lonely.

I give him till Monday.

One thing is certain – this can’t go on for another year.

I’ve been fairly sceptical about whether Brown should quit as leader because of all the obvious problems that would entail (a general election being even more problematic before the parties have sorted their expenses problems). However, he has completely lost control – you can’t have mass resignations from the cabinet the day before important elections.

I have little doubt that Labour is the party with the greatest commitment to the least advantaged members of society – not, of course, that it has always been perfect in this. But when the Prime Minister is paralysed, nothing can be done to help anyone.

Brown must quit – there must then be a leadership election. The new leader (Alan Johnson, hopefully) should then outline a radical new way forward and call an immediate general election.

Labourlist is running a rumour that Flint and Burnham will also resign today!

Wheeeeeeeeeooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

Thump.

Oh well Tom, I think we can assume this is a suicide pact (terrible taste in metaphors I know – apologies ) designed to give Labour the worst possible Euro and Council election results thus forcing the resignation/ousting of GB.

Or is the bunching of resignations a coincidence- like buses all together.

I think we should be told!

Tom

You are the Party of Callaghan, Healey, Jenkins and Crossman, but you are now becoming an utter, disreputable joke.

You CANNOT go on like this, for the sake of a credible Labour Party and for the country as a whole.

It is a shambles.

Alan Johnson, PM: 2009-10
David Cameron, PM: 2010-2019

Come on, we deserve better.

…or do we?

So Tom – nothing to say on Blears’ staggering disloyalty?

A better bet would be a GE during a PM Johnson honeymoon. The voters find Brown repellent. A wave of euphoria would sweep over the nation were he ousted.

“But I’m guessing that right at this moment you could get some very generous odds on a Labour victory. if I were you, I’d throw down a few quid. What have you got to lose?”

Ladbrokes are offering 6/1 on Labour having the most seats and 12/1 on a Labour majority. Not generous enough for me.

Bye bye Hazel, bye bye Gordon.

Thomas – the flip side of that is that the Tory price offers good value. You can get a 15% return on Betfair on the Tories getting most seats, which beats any bank, and is about as secure.

I see what you are up to Tom. You are waiting for the call from Brown

Tom,

For the love of God, the Country and the Party…please sign the letter!

Ta very much

Your dear leader has a number of cabinet posts going spare.

So, are you awaiting a phone call Tom?

Minister of Transport for a week or two.

The Guardian are reporting that around 50-80 Labour MPs have signed a letter demanding Gordon’s resignation.

Cards on the table, Tom.
Were you one of them?

We won’t tell anyone if you did…

So Tom, no comment on what is basically political chaos and collapse at the very top of our government?

I’m also pondering the whole thing about Cameron “not getting above 40%” the thing is, he’s at 40% *after* the expenses scandal, there might have been 5% or more that were going to vote Blue, but now aren’t. There might have been 5% voting red, but aren’t after the expenses scandal.

What’s interesting is now several Polls showing Labour at level pegging with the Lib Dems, something I’ve never seen happen before.

I was going to make a short, pithy comment in response to this article but Iain Dale rather annoyingly beat me to it. I think a bet on Labour would be dreadful.

If you think it’s good, though, why don’t you have a punt? Clement Freud famously backed himself to win in a bi-election and made a bundle.

In terms of people being unsure about David Cameron, I think you’re right. But who knows what *any* Leader of the Opposition will be like when in power. Who would have thought Tony Blair would cosy up to a right-wing President of the United States and take Britain to war on a series of half-truths and deceptions?

Never ever underestimate the stupidity of the British electorate. They’ll go on their summer holidays; forget about all the stuff happening at the moment; and come the election go back to voting Labour like sheep.

My £5 on a Labour win is down…

Tom, you’ve now done the loyalty bit. In public and in spades.

No-one’s going to blame you for the trouncing at the general election.

Which means you’re nicely placed for a position in the shadow government.

I hope you get it. You can help steer them away from olden Labour towards the sunlit uplands of revitalised New Labour.

Tom seems epecially busy today. What could be going on?

AJ for PM – Tom back in government and no Parly Under nonsense this time. MoS at the very least… or SoS… The Rt. Hon. Tom Harris?

Has a ring to it, has a ring to it.

NURSE…!

Tom. As I am damn certain you know (being a Scottish MP) there is a major difference now in the number of Scottish seats. There was a gross inequality in the sizes of the Scottish seat say 10 years ago but with the coming of devolution these have increased in size to the national average. IIRC this has meant the loss of about 13 seat. Scotland’s Labour fiefdom has been drastically weakened and, although it would be nice from my point of view for the Tories to do well in Scotland, it is not necessary for the Tories to do well there for them to win

Tony Blair assiduously courted middle England – the famous Worcester Woman of the 1997 election. These people have had enough of Labour and will now vote Tory in their droves – even if it means holding their noses whilst they do so.

Bit quiet today, Tom. What’s wrong? Are you too buy plotting for or against Gordon or just working out how to retreat as the Scottish Raj retires from the stage?

When even John Reid won’t work for him, Gordon must surely see his card very clearly marked!

Well done for the optimism. Labour generally always does badly in European elections: it brings out the worst in the electorate and the anti-eu loonies vote in great numbers whilst everyone else stays home and watches Corrie.

The electorate are fickle. A new broom getting elected as Labour leader and calling a snap election could do enough to prevent a Tory Landslide. But as we are going this is a Tory landslide. Put it this way Jim Murphy will soon have time to get back to Strathclyde and finish his degree.

With a bit of luck Labour could come out of this with a hung parliament.

Maybe with a bit of sense Labour will use this last year to do something radical, given that we’ll probably have the Tories in charge for the next ten. Better that than trying to out-Major Major by pushing through a ridiculous privatisation (Rail then, Royal Mail now)

It’s funny Chris as you and I don’t seem that far apart. I’m a (very probable) Tory voter this time around and its easiest, tho maybe ruder, to just fisk you!

“Well done for the optimism. Labour generally always does badly in European elections: it brings out the worst in the electorate and the anti-eu loonies vote in great numbers whilst everyone else stays home and watches Corrie.”

Yeah I totally agree. It would be like holding regular referena on Santa Clause, the validity of Transubstantiation or whether the referee was really biased against Chelsea. All the nuts come out. Even the original Labour fellas who opposed EU membership in 1972.

“The electorate are fickle. A new broom getting elected as Labour leader and calling a snap election could do enough to prevent a Tory Landslide. But as we are going this is a Tory landslide. Put it this way Jim Murphy will soon have time to get back to Strathclyde and finish his degree.”

Spot on, really.

“With a bit of luck Labour could come out of this with a hung parliament.”

Here’s where we diverge. I think Labour will be lucky not to be crushed to a Lib-Demish sub 100 seats. A perfect storm of SNP resurgence, BNP strengthening in Labour heartlands possibly cutting away at their core working class lefty vote and a Lib Dem & Tory swing in the rest of England and even Wales could really crush Labour. And that is a foreseeable outcome of the current circumstances although of variable likelihood!

“Maybe with a bit of sense Labour will use this last year to do something radical, given that we’ll probably have the Tories in charge for the next ten. Better that than trying to out-Major Major by pushing through a ridiculous privatisation (Rail then, Royal Mail now)”

Is a lot more realistic. Go on, be sensible, throw in an Ireland-style ATV Constituency system – its still constituencies with people and surgeries and annoying grunt work but they count the votes on a transferable basis. THAT should be your last hurrah.

Assuming you can assuage the Lords…

Jo:

You’re whistling in the dark dear – and I think you know it. )

LOL – which in this case means Lots of Love x Just to prove that not all people who loathe a corrupt Labour Party are themselves – EVIL.

I’m ex Labour precisely because they became a force for evil.
And No; that’s not hyperbole – Labour really are an EVIL Party – just ask one of the Iraq War Dead. Oh dear!!! You can’t!

And THAT’S the point.

BTW Tom,

Have you signed “THAT” letter yet?

I can always rely on you for a good laugh in the afternoon, Tom. A Labour victory after the next election? Oh, that one’s an absolute classic.

You’ll be telling us next that Gordon Brown will lead this country out of recession and back to prosperity. Do keep the laughs coming.

@ Silent Hunter
“Have you signed “THAT” letter yet?”

I already asked. Looks like Tom’s being like dad and keeping mum at the moment…

Sorry to disappoint you guys but I’ll tell you what I’ve told every journalist who’s asked me this afternoon: I have seen no such letter or email and I haven’t been approached by anyone asking me to sign one.

At the weekend it was “Where is Gordon Brown”. Its now nearly 8pm – where is Tom Harris?

Bloody well go and find out who you need to see to sign it then man!

Tom – I hope you’re right. I’ve had £500 at 2.3 on Brown’s departure occuring between April and June next year. After the events of the last couple of days, that’s lengthened to 3.4. Think it’s worth putting more on at that price?

I predict the Monster Raving Loonies will come from nowhere to win an overwhelming majority. The electorate have the impression that loonies hold most of the seats in England already.

@Tom Harris I have seen no such letter or email and I haven’t been approached by anyone asking me to sign one.

…but are you aware of any such letter circulating amongst Labour MPs?

Iab Thorpe.

Most of the holders may be loonies: but they are crooks first.

Paul Williams: “…but are you aware of any such letter circulating amongst Labour MPs?”

My goodness, but you’re a cynical lot, aren’t you?

To clarify: I am not aware of, have never been informed about and have never seen any evidence of the letter/email in question.

Is that unambiguous enough?

Ah, it takes me back to the good old days when I was a young Kremlin watcher. Who’s moved closer to the General Secretary on the roof of the mausoleum since the last May Day parade? Who’s moved further away?

Maybe you’re just not popular enough to hang with the cool kids, smoking behind the bike sheds and signing poison pen letters….

Paul
Tom writes a BLOG

.. Would you trust any Blogger with a secret which could cost you promotion/your job?

Of course not.

If I were a Labour plotter, Tom would be a no-go area…

Whoaa…easy there Richard…of course Tom is cool – he hangs out with us doesn’t he?

Cumon Harris! You’re our inside man….tell us the goss! Otherwise we have to rely on Dianne Abbot!

Sky news inadvertantly read out the email address that Labour MPs were supposed to email.

So sorely tempted to register Jackstrawmp@hotmail.com to say “count me in”

So, 100 Labour MPs…….
No, 50 Labour MPs…….
No …… some Labour MPs are wanting Gordon Brown to step down for the sake of the party.
Every journalist has spoken to loads apparently. Nick has, Martha has, the new woman on the Daily Politics has.
No names, naturally. But loads.
There’s a “Round Robin” e-mail. Yes! That’s e-mail!
Now me, I associate Round Robins with those dreadful Christmas missives from “friends”. And I associate e-mails with …….. what was his name?
But Tom, my Labour MP blogger of choice has no knowledge of either an e-mail or letter.
And no resignation from Alastair, James Purnell or Caroline Flint.
I thought form various blogs earlier today that these were imminent?

Never in the world of dubious political reporting have so many conspiracy theories been floated in such a short space of time. Such fun!
Still, I’m sure I’ll learn the truth tomorrow night on “This Week.”
Off to bed now. Must be up early to vote. Hope you’ll all join me.

I wouldn’t be so sure about a Tory landslide. Speaking to ordinary friends and colleagues none of them are going to vote Tory, mind you, none of them are going to vote Liberal or Labour either. People I have spoken to say they will also not vote for any of the main parties at the General Election either. Nor will I. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Shaun P,

I think a hung parliament is unlikely. Our system works heavily against it with a small tipping point. It’s why I said with a bit of luck.

Of course Labour’s problem is not losing seats to the Lib Dems or the SNP (which could easily happen in smallish numbers), but losing seats directly to the Tories. That’s when the figure of 100 Lib Dem MPs starts to look nonsensical. They would need to win Glasgow North, East Edinburgh and Newcastle North to win those sort of seats.

Or put it another way. Our parliament is effectively split 3 ways. 200 rock Tory seats, 200 rock Labour seats and 200 up for grabs one way or another.

For the Lib Dems to get 100 seats they need both main parties to do badly so that they can win half of the seats that are effectively in contest.