WE’VE ALL been having fun with Dave’s scrapping and melting down of his “cast iron” guarantee to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

And at 4.00 pm, the cast-iron laddie will take to the rostrum to explain a new policy which he hopes will be an effective sticking plaster over the newly exposed European wounds in his party. He’s been lucky in at least one respect: whatever he says will be lost in the acres of coverage of Kelly’s report into MPs’ expenses; so, for the time being at least, Dave’s difficulties won’t be too high up the media agenda.

Apparently he’ll announce a “manifesto mandate” to be obstructive and rude to foreigners, or something, which will go down well enough with his rank and file.

But all this dancing around the issue is getting silly. Dan “I’m not as mad as I look, honestly” Hannan MEP was on Newsnight last night insisting that a future Cameron government should hold a referendum on Europe. Which aspect of Europe? asked Paxo, reasonably enough. Doesn’t really matter, provided there’s a referendum, replied the party’s Great White Hope.

You know what he meant. I know what he meant. Paxo knew what he meant. There’s a more than 50 per cent chance that Hannan knew what he meant: the overwhelming majority of rank and file Conservative Party members want a referendum on withdrawal from the EU.

All this shilly-shallying over Lisbon, over the proposed repatriation of specific powers, none of this really matters to most Tories. The big issue for them is not a refinement of the UK’s relationship with Europe; it is Britain’s membership itself of the EU, and they will not rest until they get it.

Cameron would unite his party if today he were to announce exactly that (although there would then be the bear trap of which way any government led by him would campaign during the campaign).

Of course, not all Tories go along with the foamers; Ken Clarke, distrusted by most of his party, has reportedly pulled out of his appearance on today’s The Daily Politics. A straw in the wind, perhaps?