And another thing…

Dream on baby.

It’s the 1 in 1000 year poll.

before you turn out the lights and imagine a Labour triumph…and then imagine the IMF rollin into Downing St(again) 2 months later as Sterling goes though the floor. Sleeptight.

You should be embarassed that a majority at the polls does not produce a majority government. 12 years of Labour gerrymandering … is about all that you have achieved

No worries. “Iraq report: Secret papers reveal blunders and concealment” in the Telegraph tomorrow.

Bartimeus – you do realise that the Boundary Commission is politically neutral and that even the Tory Party would not claim otherwise?

This doesn’t bode well for the Tories at all. Labour had a stratospheric lead in the polls in the months leading up to the 97 GE.

Imagine how wonderful the world would be if man-made global warming were just a figment of Gordon Brown and David Cameron’s imagination. No more ugly wind farms to darken our sunlit uplands. No more whopping electricity bills, artificially inflated by EU-imposed carbon taxes. No longer any need to treat each warm, sunny day as though it were some terrible harbinger of ecological doom. Imagine….like this poll it is a GLOBAL PROBLEM (balls)

I think this is a result of the Tories not having any kind of referendum on Europe. It will only be temporary so do not build your hopes up Tom. Sorry.

Yes, Tom: the Boundary Commission is entirely imartial.

Which is why, at the last election, Labour won a massive majority despite getting half a million votes fewer than the Tories.

Tell me, what definition of “impartial” are you using? Is it the one where “impartial” means “biased towards the government of the day” or the one where it means “completely bloody incompetent”?

DK

This poll is so out of kilter with the trends of other polls of the last 2 years or so, I think it has to be treated with caution – the jump is unusually massive.

If they’re another couple of polls soon with similar results then the Tories should start being very worried.

Everybody reacts to polls as if the election was tomorrow. If another poll comes out next week putting Tories 15 points ahead again all the people happy now will be sad again, and vice versa. (Sorry for simplistic language. Too many children.) If the public really are so fickle that they change their mind every week, it only goes to show what a nonsense the whole thing is.

ps: Still go to bed happy though. I wouldn’t want to spoil that!!!

“Which is why, at the last election, Labour won a massive majority despite getting half a million votes fewer than the Tories.”

What have you been smoking? Labour got about 800,000 more votes at the ‘05 General.

Unless of course this is another postal vote conspiracy theory claim.

Thank you for pointing that out, Michael – you beat me to it. The “Labour won fewer votes than the Tories” myth is believed by a lot of people who really ought to know better.

If Labour is returned to power with Gordon Brown as PM, I shall leave for a Country that eschews war with other countries, that believes in sensible benefits for ordinary people and would not cede powers to the EU that were against its National interests and one that has hit a 30-year low in recorded crime.

Hang on, wait a minute, I already have!

I suspect Michael was referring to the result in England only – where the Conservatives did indeed poll more votes than Labour but ended up with 100 fewer seats. But the election wasn’t on an England-only basis so this is a meaningless observation.

The reason why the present Parliamentary boundaries happen to make it more difficult for the Conservatives is not because anyone designed it so, but because of the places where Conservative Party voters live (or alternatively, because voters are only choosing to vote Conservative in large numbers in particular areas). If you want to get round that the only way is to engage in an enormous gerrymander.

Repetitive I know.

The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

Nice to know that being 6 points behind in a poll brightens your day
Have a restful sleep and pleasant dreams.

I am not alone in having pointed out that Labour’s recovery in the polls would depend on public perception of economic growth. While the most recent 3 months’ figure was -0.4% that may mask expansion in Aug/Sept (there having been a greater fall in July) and certainly Stobarts suggested expansion a while back.

May also have been a boost from the disgraceful treatment of Gordon Brown The Sun and co meted out. We Brits like a bit of fair play.

Chameleon may have peaked too soon, and now, having been talking like he was leading a Government in waiting, be booted out in the electorates’ mind. Presumption cometh . .

http://twitter.com/Quietzapple

What Cameron has up is sleeve is a referendum on Europe. If he is very low in the polls for the next few months he may play that card.Also no matter how you try to spin it the economy and debt will be far worse by the election.
I thought that QS law to promise to pay back the debt in 4 years was, well what can I say its like children playing post offices at infants school.

God help us. We are already looking at moving abroad, and will for sure if Labour get back in again. Before the exit visas and currency export restrictions, that is.

Says this former Labour voter of 30+ years.

As for fair play, QZ, I say unto you “Damian MacBride”.

That’s Brown’s notion of fair play.

I would also add that Mandelson’s behaviour is becoming increasingly alarming. Foreign Secretary he wants now? What next – will he want to be the Queen?

@David Boothroyd Sunday 22 November 2009 at 2:03 am

“I suspect Michael was referring to the result in England only – where the Conservatives did indeed poll more votes than Labour but ended up with 100 fewer seats. But the election wasn’t on an England-only basis so this is a meaningless observation”

Oh not it is not. Not whilst the West Lothian question remains unanswered.

‘I can go to bed (reasonably) happy now.’

Goodness it doesn’t take much to make you ‘reasonably ‘ happy Mr Harris. As others are saying, there are a lot more polls to come and they won’t all show Labour rising.

I think you’re right to be optimistic though – engaged in two of the most unpopular wars in history, widely distrusted, with the press pack agin him, Broon is still holding his own against Cameron, whom Culshaw is beginning to nail in his ‘What Cameron does at night’ sketches.

And Quietzapple is perfectly right about the bounce back from the press hounding – the charges and dark hints could have as been as well applied to Churchill, and to several modern leading politicians. Iain Dale was very good on this squalid affair.

By the way, Tom, despite Labour having appeared to cast off all sorts of trappings at the past, they seem to be at heart profoundly Socialist, and used the City as an easy mechanism to fund their mad socialist dreams.

Do you count yourself a Socialist, and if so – nay, regardless, what do you say to this interesting dissection of it?

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nvdemanc/socialism.html

John Major got more votes than TB ever did. Look at the relative majorities that resulted.

Labour have a massive advantage. To suggest otherwise is stupidity or dishonesty.

It might be a rogue poll. Don’t get too excited.

If Cameron offers a referendum on Rurit…sorry…the European Union, he could win in a rather big way. But his last cast iron guarantee was a little like Labour’s manifesto promise on Lisbon. We may not believe him.

Labour could spike his guns by offering one. If they had the courage of their oft stated convictions (that political union is good for us), they would.

But again, who’d believe?

Good grief Mr H, it was all going so well.
(Please don’t mention the Dual Mandate)

Devil’s Kitchen: The Boundary Commission considers factors other than “electoral equality” (that all constituencies/wards be equal in size) when deciding the boundaries of parliamentary seats or local government wards, also asking to what extent the resultant constituencies are genuine communities rather than cobbled-together areas. It’s a perfectly sensible conclusion that this method could lead to systematic difference in sizes between constituencies drawn up from Tory-leaning and Labour-leaning areas.

You don’t need to invent a Government conspiracy to explain the discrepancy between percentage of national votes required by each party, so it’s probably sensible not to.

Great, in that case, when you wake up from your dream, why don’t you ask your leader to hold an election immediately?

Thought not, six months is a long time and there’s too much at stake – expenses wise…

@ Sergeant Plodder
Sunday 22 November 2009 at 11:09 am

I think if you can define New Labour as “socialist” and keep a straight face while doing so then you need to dig out your old school text books on political terminology…

I love these rogue polls that convince ‘the faithful’ (ie terminally stupid) that there will be anything other than a massive Conservative majority post-polling day.

Still nice to see Captain Insensible’s advisers have got him going into full SuperGordon mode in his day out at Cockermouth.

Unfortunately for him (and them) he doesn’t have a clue (and neither do they).

He has been an unmitigated disaster for this country and I would bet my bottom dollar that there is not a single Nulabour voter on here that is not a member of The Client State.

Beautiful sentiments there from what is probably a typical Tory.

Rigged, nobody falling for it, wont get flloed again, McLabour OUT!!!!!!!!

You upset that nice Clegg chappie being rude about him the other day, Tom. He’s taken it to heart

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6927353.ece

@Michael.

Their control from the centre is pure socialist, their building of a client state is pure socialist, their delight in surveillance reeks of the old GDR, down to neighbourhood snoops.

Indeed, all they have done is latch on to the splendid source of funds the unregulated City sent the Treasury’s way to fund their equality for all by reducing us to the lowest common denominator philosophy.

Just updated. Very nasty. You want a good read on socialism, I’d check this lecture out.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nvdemanc/socialism.html

New Labour are the same old wolf, in sheep’s clothing. Look – I voted for them, they fooled me.

Won’t get fooled no more. Equality and democracy are *not* the same things.

Has Plodder considered some bicarb? With kaolin on the side?

Ah well the Lib/Dems will support the Tories, so they are not that bad after all. Tom you will just have get used to it, as no one loves labour.

Well done Mr Clegg at last you see Labour as you natural enemy.

Your party should not have treated him with contemp at PMQs. you never know when you need a friend. We all need to work to block any more Labour laws. The whole country will give such a sigh of relief when you have gone.

“What have you been smoking? Labour got about 800,000 more votes at the ‘05 General.”

Good lord, you’re right. My apologies.

However, the percentages were as follows:

Labour: 35.3%
Tory: 32.3%
LibDim: 22.1%

And the seats were allocated as follows:

Labour: 356
Tories: 198
LibDim: 62

So, with 3% more votes, Labour managed to get 158 (24.5%) more seats than the Tories.

Does no one think—putting aside party politics (I support none of the Big Three)—that there’s something just a wee bit wrong with our “democracy”…?

DK

DK,

That’s the nature of FPTP, but no-one has yet given me a good enough reason to support the other voting systems, especially PR since looking at the way PR works in the EU, it is not that accountable (since I don’t vote for the MEP at all)

@Quietzapple Sunday 22 November 2009 at 9:16 pm
//
Has Plodder considered some bicarb? With kaolin on the side?
//
That the best you can come up with? Why bother?

Tom – no response to the lecture in the link I posted, I see. Would be interested to see what you have to say.

Surely PR of some sort should be tried out for the House of Lords? Only Chameleon implacably opposes an elected Lords, and he is now engaged with his Leader there – Strathclyde – in making out that his lack of a technical majority there would significantly inconvenience him were he to lead HMG.

Strathclyde, who fell out with the Tories at one point I recall, supposedly has told Chameleon he must be more upfront with his “promises.”

This runs counter to the lad himself’s definite intention to keep utterly schtumn on ALL policies except IHT & Fox hunting free vote.

Labour’s Democratic stance should include:

Curbs on foreign control of our media & semi-monopolies
Elected Lords
Enforcement of restrictions re residence & tax status for Lords in meantime
Libels to be punished by compulsory corrections, esp Media libels

Oh, and Labour will have a serious manifesto of course. We may leave it to Mr Cameron to pen “The Longest Suicide Note in History” this time . . .

Tom, I know some of your guests like to keep up to date with this sort of thing, and the “cackling” “friendly” Sir Iain Dale is letting them down for the moment, pursuing other rather older evidence:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/160-labour-fight-poll-begins

may be more up to date?

UK Polling report

Just to illustrate a post I made a fortnight or so ago. At the time Jackie Ashley was assuring us that Labour’s private polling “suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory.”

To reduce Labour to 120 seats the Conservative would have needed a lead of about 28 points.

Today though, James Macintyre assures us that Labour’s private polling shows they are now ahead.

So… Labour have made up a deficit of around 28 points? In a fortnight? Either Labour’s private polling figures are so comically volatile as to be worthless, or one or both of you have been sold a pup, haven’t you?

Once again, please ignore any journalist claiming to have seen parties’ private polling showing X, unless they quote actual figures. If they do quote actual figures, go and contact the pollster responsible and request the release of the tables under the BPC disclosure rules so you can see for yourself what they actually say.

UPDATE: James now says Labour’s private polling doesn’t show them ahead. It shows a trend that he or his source interpret as showing that Labour will be in front by next year. Since there’s still no actual figures or tables for you to draw your own conclusions from, you should still ignore it.

Plodder doesn’t do numbers, just tiresome endless quackery.

Labour are catching up, in various polls, partly because The Sun and its keenest trolling students have upset many members of the General Public.

The Sun has lost readers, the Tories prospective voters.

More on the way, betcha.

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/160-labour-fight-poll-begins

helps explain different polling methodology to those who are actually interested in the facts, rather than how upset Tory Trolls have become in the past 24 hrs.

Notable that the Ipsos/MORI poll was published a week after completion of its fieldwork, while the Angus Reid one is published as soon as it is ready, for propaganda purposes no doubt.

Angus Reid looks like an American company to me.

How much foreign influence on our politics are foreign based firms and individuals to be permitted? Ashcroft, Laidlaw, Murdochs, Barclay Bros . . .

They don’t seem to publicise the fact that theirs is an internet poll either . . .

The propaganda angle increaseth.