And another thing…

22%? Jeepers. And I love the fact that I have to add another sentence because my first comment was “a bit too short”.

It is an internet poll.

The apparently US based company have rushed out out within hours of completion of the fieldwork, apparently for propaganda reasons, which calls them into question.

And the Ipsos/MORI one has greater credibility than the others at the moment, because it does not rely on peoples’ recall of how they voted last time for its sampling technique.

At the moment many people are rather annoyed with The Sun’s methods of attacking Gordon Brown – even tory voters – perhaps also with the ratting on the EU Referendum, and so many who did vote Tory last time will recall that they did something else.

Polls use different methods of collecting their data and different assumptions to weight their results: to paraphrase, “There are Lies, Dammed Lies and Polls”

As a Tory, opinion polls mean very little to me until after the announcement of the GE.

Hang on, if you’re worried, does that mean the GE is nearer than we think? Whoohoo!

Welcome back, BTW, I missed you, for all of an hour….

I have every confidence that UK voters will give the Government the support and votes its performance over the past 5 years deserves>

Just in case we forete:

Lies over Afghanistan (“without a shot” said Reid as we entered the war).

A Referendum on Europe.

The 10p tax will not hurt the poorest paid.

The UK recession will end by Quarter 3 2009 and Britain is best placed to survive the recession.

Our UK troops are well armed and receive all the equipment they need.

Brown proposed some policy initiatives which he called ‘The manifesto for change.’[60][61] The manifesto included a clampdown on corruption and a new Ministerial Code, which set out clear standards of behaviour for ministers.

He subsequently repaid over £10k of expenses he personally had overclaimed.

The expenses scandal.

With a record like that, all sane and sensible people realise Mr Brown fully deserves re-election. To suggest otherwise is the action of a nasty Tory – who eats babies.

These Angus Reid polls have no track record in the UK, and their methodology which weights by previous vote and assumes people always accurately remember and report it is a questionable one (on which, see Anthony Wells).

There you are Tom I told you it would not last long, but of course you knew that.

Don’t be too disheartened old fruit – I think this one is as wide of the mark as the 6%-er.

Nevermind Tom. “Things can only get better” …… or maybe not.

“Everybody reacts to polls as if the election was tomorrow. If another poll comes out next week putting Tories 15 points ahead again all the people happy now will be sad again, and vice versa. (Sorry for simplistic language. Too many children.) If the public really are so fickle that they change their mind every week, it only goes to show what a nonsense the whole thing is.”
This is what I said yesterday in response to the six percent poll. What I got wrong was the poll next week with a 15% lead, should have read poll tomorrow with 17% lead. And the public don’t change their mind every week, they change it every day. Yet each one is still taken so seriously!

Oh dear.

“It is an internet poll.” Like YouGov…

“Ipsos/MORI … does not rely on peoples’ recall of how they voted last time for its sampling technique” unlike EVERY other UK pollster.

Are you suggesting that every poll by YouGov, ICM and Populous have less “credibility” than MORI?

Straw, clutched, missed, failed.

With no track record I’m happy to ignore the Angus Reid poll. But I do suspect that the MORI poll was an outlier.

The good news for you Tom and yours is that you will be able to spend more time with your family without losing your job.

It suggests that Labour will be in the “Others” category soon.

All I know is that most polls have always underestimated the right wing vote.
I have always concluded there are more left wing people available to take the poll.

I am not making a big deal about it but it is the case if you care look back at the facts and compare.

Oh for goodness sake stop picking at your poll spots.

One of your regulars quite rightly pulled me up the other day for quoting a US Blitz-era poll which gave the UK 10% backing in the US – opinion changed very quickly once Ed Morrow and the rest of the Britophiles got to work.

If anyone just two years ago had said that the BNP would outpoll both Sherry and the SSP and come just as few dozen votes behind the Tories in a Springburn election that person would quite rightly have been pelted with tomatoes – but lo it came to pass.

Wonder what the odds are on the Tories capturing Salmond’s Westminster seat now he’s giving it up.

David Boothroyd & Quietzapple – spinmeister wannabes.

I look forward to your postings the day after the election, explaining why the electorate got it wrong.

@Hawkeye (LOL):

I shall be laughing myself silly at the look on tory faces (Oh and the “Libertarians”) as per the past three GEs, and the occasional by-election where we were told that we had no chance . . .

One opinion poll matters not.

Examine the trend.

There’s another rather nefarious practice going on which may be skewing the results.

I have no idea how widespread the practice is, but I have anecdotal evidence that some students have found an easy way to get free money through internet polls such as YouGov. My friend’s son, who’s at uni, has been doing this. Also, there’s a comment on MailWatch describing the same thing.

Allegedly, if you say you intend to vote Tory you will get more surveys. More surveys, more moolah, just for clicking some boxes on the laptop whilst watching Hollyoaks / Dr Who / Harry Hill / X-Factor / etc.

http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2403&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=75
(last comment in thread)

If those that throw mud lose ground, New Labour are standing on the last few inches of turf. It doesn’t matter what you say or do any more.

Just the last 12 months of GB’s spin has done enough. Calling DC ‘Mr 10%’ and claiming we were best placed to enter recession are lies that the most simple person can see through. What chance of any credibility any time soon.

New poll from Scotland, massive for Labour,

http://bit.ly/6HeL2X

“The Conservatives wouldn’t gain anything.”

A hung parliament in which Chameleon wore Unionist colours in N Ireland and SNP ones in Scotland would be about his mark, were he up to it . . . .

While unemployment remains below the levels of France, USA and other leading economies it seems to me that those who make out that the UK was NOT well placed to weather the recession are Contemptible Liars, but then, they know that when they lie about Gordon Brown & HMG.

@Quietzapple, “While unemployment remains below the levels of France, USA and other leading economies it seems to me that those who make out that the UK was NOT well placed to weather the recession are Contemptible Liars, but then, they know that when they lie about Gordon Brown & HMG.”

Lol! Gordon Brown said we were BEST placed of the G7 countries, not WELL placed. The fact is, we are the last of the G7 countries to be able to say we are out of the recession. That is not a lie.

Whether we had growth in July and August followed by a massive drop in September or not, (and there are no figures available yet to support that), the fact is by the definiation of recession, we are still the last of the G7 countries to emerge from this one. You cannot spin that.

And while our public wage bill is so high, (and still growing), the unemployment figures cannot be used as an indicator of economic well-being, since Grodon Brown is borrowing money to pay for them all.

It’ll all have to be paid back some time, with tax revenue paid for by people and companies who actually contribute to GDP.

@Spinmeister Simon:

You don’t subscribe to the more usual definition of GDP then?

Neither do you don’t expect the banks to be sold at a profit then?

From your no doubt comfortable lifestyle the “scourge of Unemployment” may not be of any importance. That will be why trolls such as thee made out it would climb through the roof.

Small wonder BevaniteEllie’s campaign for back to Labour basics have such a resonance among decent people. Not all that we need to engage with of course . . . .

@Quietzapple “From your no doubt comfortable lifestyle the “scourge of Unemployment” may not be of any importance. That will be why trolls such as thee made out it would climb through the roof.”

I lost my job back in June thanks to the recession.

I found another job in July, albeit 25% less than I was earning before, and have been working mostly 6 days a week since then, to make up the shortfall.

However, you chose not to respond to my comments. Is that beacuse I am right and you were wrong ?

I read all your last comment Simon, and No, it is because, while I am sorry you feel you need to chase money so hard, (is your employer extremely indulgent of your posting, perhaps favours your trolling?) I do not find your arguments interesting.

Sorry.

As people usually go onto blogs to complain, usually about HMG, there are few such as I who usually take a contrary view. Most of us simply cannot be bothered to express a view in a hostile environment.

There are not enough of us to go around, and, in any case, I prefer to put my own view to adopting the agendas of such as yourself.

Happy days!

@Quietzapple, Your last comments are very revealing.

“while I am sorry you feel you need to chase money so hard,”

What would you have me do ? Sit back and expect tax-payers to pay my mortgage, and feed my family ?

“I do not find your arguments interesting”

You don’t find the truth about our economic situation interesting ? That does your credibility no good at all.

“As people usually go onto blogs to complain, usually about HMG, there are few such as I who usually take a contrary view. Most of us simply cannot be bothered to express a view in a hostile environment.”

This isn’t a hostile enviornment. You might want steer clear of Guido’s place if you think it’s hostile here.

And for the record, I’m not here to complain. I’m here to listen to an opinion that differs to my own, and comment on it.

“I prefer to put my own view to adopting the agendas of such as yourself.”

I don’t have an agenda. I just have an opinion, like yourself.

What trolling, Simon.

You always have an agenda, desperate to bed the thread to your own set of points as Alec pointed out on Iraq. In fact you are one of the few tory trolls I have suspected of being paid.

Tom’s thread, being the most popular Labour MPs’ blog attracts myriad tory wannabe trolls, it is a ludicrously hostile environment.

Guido’s is a joke, the name calling I have read referred to on the Dully Tele is laughable, just lots of projection as is usual with right wingers.

A truly nasty environment was the Dully Tele a year or so ago, and the “Communities Editor” and “moderators” co-operating.

You have not ever told The Truth about Britain’s economic situation, Always biased the whole thing to run my country down, I view such as you with well deserved contempt.

I gather the latest YouGov shows a narrowing of the Tory lead too, as the Ipsos/MORI one did, but the very dubious internet Angus one, perhaps run from Canada, did not.

Long way to go.

Ten More Years!