And Another Thing…

On the bright side, there’s still the tv debates to come…

How do these percentages translate into seats?

Yougov, however, showing the lead at 9 points. I think politicalbetting is right to point out that as the election gets closer, the polls get more polarised – “others” are dropping fast (and the Lib Dems haven’t really had a good news story from a poll since well before Christmas).

The polling average seems to point to a workable Conservative majority still – even if you ignore Angus Reid, who give polls drastically different to the rest, even though their methodology seems to be sound (unlike Mori’s). I think there are very few pressure-points left that could change the overall polling position before the election. The debates are probably Labour’s last chance.

One thing I have wondered is whether seasonal factors play any part in polling. I know I’m drawing on a small sample-set here, but for two years in a row, we’ve seen Labour have a noticable recovery in the polls starting in mid-late November and reaching a peak shortly before Christmas, but then dissipating as January goes on. I’m probably being simplistic, but it does make me wonder whether the cycle of Christmas spending followed by January austerity plays any part in people’s voting intention.

I thought this piece by Lord Tebbit was very interesting, so there is still all to play for.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100022421/beware-of-opinion-polls-millions-of-people-cant-find-a-party-they-want-to-vote-for/

I can’t say that I take much notice of the polls anymore. How can one poll show a Tory lead of 13% and another 9%? They both can’t be right.

One thing I do think though is that the debates won’t save Brown. Cameron didn’t do too well in his debate with DD for the leadership but he’s had 4+ years as leader now so he’s a completely different political animal. Brown should fear him. It’s just a shame that political irritant Clegg is going to get involved.

Sick of polls already, they ought to be banned!

Lies, damned lies & statistics, the lot of them!

The fact that they move about so much says that either they are asking the wrong people at the wrong time (or completely different groups of people & then comparing results based of entirely unrelated “samples”)….

…..or that the section of the British electorate that they are asking is so fickle and driven by immediate self interest that they shouldn’t, by & large, be entrusted with a vote in the first place!

I find it almost incomprehensible that anyone could not be pretty much 100% clear now on how they will vote at the upcoming election.

As before, the only poll that matters is the one on polling day at the ballot box – so (Tom) if there is anything you can do to see your way to persuading yer man Gordaon that we’ve all had enough now & would really like the opportunity to vote ASAP, you’d be doing us all a huge favour. Personally I’m free to vote any time from Monday morning onwards !

barton71

No-one can really agree. That’s the fun part.

Like Jonny Norfolk, I found that blog by Lord Tebbit very indicative, if only for the numbers that he quoted, and I do believe that for the democracy to be indicative of the population it must include the “none of the above” option (or penalties on not getting voters out) so that the governing parties actually do listen, and do represent. The people that don’t vote may not be just accepting the status quo, but can’t find any other way to put their message across. Even Russia has a “none of the above option” on its ballot papers

As you are probably aware Tom, it is very difficult to equate two polls from two different companies because they have different techniques and apply “varying” rounding factors. I also have issues with Yougov’s close links to your party which means that their findings may be viewed as less than non-partisan, but also some of their rounding techniques apply a much greater “last election” factor to their results to avoid the wild fluctuations caused by the sample size. Polling companies don’t seem to ascribe to “past performances are no guide to future potential”.

The biggest issue I have with the polls, however, is that they tend to have only 1000 respondents to extrapolate from, which is less than 2 people per constituency in a three (main) party system which necessitates all the figure massaging

Looks like Whitehall have sussed your boss as well, Tom. A right kicking here

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991086.ece

Such a great leader.

And, yes, Tebbit is right. We have an excellent local Lib Dem MP (without him I would be voting Tory for the first time ever, to make sure this shower are kicked out), but Clegg is useless. I am one of many who no longer feels represented by any of the mainstream parties at all.

FUBAR. Parliament and the political process has been battered beyond repair these past 12 years, and all I see for the UK now is the decline of the past 12 years accelerating.

We’re gone if they get back in again – already working on it just in case.

All over Tom – Brown intent on ensuring Labour’s destruction at the polls

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991089.ece

Brown ready to give Blair election role

The Sunday Times has learnt that moves are under way for the former PM to return to domestic politics to help fight the Tories

GO FOR IT GORDO!

I know! Imagine recruiting Tony Blair, the most unpopular, least successful political leader of the past 15 years… oh, hang on…

Nine points, twelve points, fifteen points; matters not, everyone knows you’re losing. The tories might not be winning right now, but you’re certainly losing.
The only way Labour *could* win at this point would be for Blair to announce he’s standing as an MP again, and if Labour win, would challenge Gordon to be Leader.
Even then you’d be on damned shaky grounds.

Part of the problem is that in politics, perception is everything. Most people perceive Gordo to be a bit of a prat.. Sure, he’s a nice enough bloke, but charisma-wise, he’s had a quadruple bypass.
Cameron on the other hand is perceived by many to have the “air of victory” about him, and sure, he’s a bit shifty, the Tories always are, but he seems to be a competent man for the job, and his team are stable and look “good” on telly.

Whereas Labour’s election team/cabinet looks like a bunch of ill-willed buffoons who would stab each other in the backs for a favourable page-17 paragraph in the Sun.
Blair understood “perception”. Him and Alastair are very very very good at managing image.
Gordon on the other hand…

Never mind, it could be worse.

also, Tom, don’t you think you should do a bit of self-promotion?

Tom: If you want to find out what the real result is, persuade Mr Brown to call an election.

That’d show these pesky pollsters….

I think that being asked in a poll is quite different to the cold light of the election day when confronted with the brutal prospect of a Tory government.

Spending cuts is seen as an obvious solution to our economic predicament but I am not convinced; sometimes the “obvious” solutions can do more harm than good. The economy is cyclic in nature, nothing ought to interfere with that cycle.

Tim: The economy is cyclic in nature, nothing ought to interfere with that cycle.

Gordon Brown: No return to Tory boom and bust.

Which one should we believe?

No idea why it was a ‘Tory’ boom and bust.