We may have been over-exposed to the election process here in the UK given the failings of our own government these past few years, but in the USA voters will finally get their chance to make their judgement of Donald Trump’s reign known in November.
That is when the next US Presidential election will take place, and it seems almost a given that Trump will secure the Republican nomination in his quest for another four years in the White House.
More than six months ahead of the vote, you might think I’m being a bit premature with my introduction to the election, but it’s worth taking a look now because the Democratic Party presidential primaries are currently taking place.
Following a series of ballots across the country, the Democrats will reveal their candidate to take on Trump in the presidential election on June 6.
The process is already underway, and four of the candidates – Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigeg, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren – have already been withdrawn from the running due to not getting enough support.
And that leaves three potential Democratic Party candidates left: Tulsi Gabbard, who doesn’t stand a chance of winning given that she has just 0.7% of the vote so far, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.
What Has Happened in the Democratic Party Primaries So Far?
The Democratic elections process is currently taking place in 50 US states and its overseas territories.
At the start of the process there were 29 potential candidates vying for the chance to take on Trump, and that has now been whittled to three as those without a realistic chance of winning are withdrawn from the race.
At this present moment, the race is pretty close between Biden (32%), who is the moderate ‘centrist’ candidate, and Sanders (28%), the socialist-leaning veteran.
Biden currently leads by 78 delegates – 637-559 to be precise – in what is a race to 1,991.
Voting so far has included many of the West Coast states where Sanders is popular, and the busiest day of the polls so far – Super Tuesday – saw Biden extend his lead in polls from California to Texas, winning 10 of the 14 available states.
Some more crucial votes will take place on March 17, including Florida, Illinois and Ohio, before New York and Pennsylvania will have their say on April 28.
Who is Joe Biden?
Considered the more ‘populist’ of the two main candidates, Biden has been winning delegates in ‘Middle America’ and in Deep South states like Texas and Oklahoma.
He was the vice president to Barack Obama throughout his reign in the White House, and was responsible for a number of progressive policies in that time in terms of healthcare and job creation.
Biden has been outspoken in his opposition to Trump, and once called the US’s paid healthcare system as a ‘tax bill’ designed to transfer money from the poor to the rich.
Speaking out on the 2016 presidential election, Biden said: “There are a lot of people out there who are frightened. Trump played on their fears. What we haven’t done, in my view—and this is a criticism of all us—we haven’t spoken enough to the fears and aspirations of the people we come from.”
Who is Bernie Sanders?
Sanders has held a range of positions in government and ran as the Democratic candidate in 2016, losing out to Hilary Clinton.
He is a progressive socialist, and would look to change the way the US operates as far as wealth distribution and austerity are concerned.
Considered a kind and thoughtful man, Sanders is popular over on the liberal West Coast but may ultimately struggle to win the necessary gains in Middle America and on the East Coast.
What Does the US Presidential Election Betting Market Say?
Given his more centrist position, Biden is considered a more likely victor in the race for the Democratic leadership, and he is as short as 1/8 with some firms to secure the necessary votes. Sanders is back at 7/1.
Assuming Biden does win, he would be well positioned to take on Donald Trump given that he could win over many voters in Republican-dominated seats – including those which went from blue to red in 2016 – with his common sense approach.
Obama was a noted centrist, and this more moderate approach to Trump’s far right leanings would surely see voters turning back to the Democrats in droves.
It’s widely accepted that Trump will ever be as popular as he was in 2016, and despite being the favourite with the bookies to win the US Presidential Election in 2020 at 4/6, he appears to me to be in a position of weakness should Biden prevail over Sanders.
At odds of 8/5, Biden could well be the smart bet in this market.