And another thing…

This morning I witnessed an interesting and, I hope, widespread, consequence of the Tories’ victory in Crewe. A constituent who, although a Labour voter, had been critical of Labour in the past, told me: “New Labour were Thatcher Mark 2, but we’ve got to do something to stop that lot getting back in, because they’re just Thatcher Mark 3.”

Now, obviously I don’t agree with his description of the government (it’s funny how people’s memory of Thatcher’s awfulness fades over time), but if Crewe manages to concentrate people’s minds on the consequences of swapping this government for the alternative, then we will have managed to salvage something.

But as far as silver linings are concerned, right now I can’t perceive any others.

Went to bed early last night because there wasn’t much on telly. Did I miss anything?

Jon Sopel is positively salivating on BBC News as he looks forward to tonight’s coverage of the by-election. I can’t imagine the scale of disappointment at the BBC and in the wider media if Labour pulls off a surprise victory. “This is the most important by-election for a decade,” Sopel announced. But only if the Tories win, he should have added.

Yes, we all know Crewe is Labour’s 165th safest seat, but we also know that whatever the swing tonight, it can’t be extrapolated across the whole country to give any kind of meaningful indication of a future general election result. If swings in by-elections mean anything, then the Liberals won the 1992 general election with a 300 majority.

When campaigning in by-elections in the 1980s and ’90s, you could always count on lots of people being in during the day because there was so much unemployment. Following a morning’s campaigning in sunny Crewe, therefore, I’m reminded of the consequences of high employment and 11 years of economic growth: hardly anyone was at home. A few years ago you could at least have depended on pensioners being home. But now they’ve all swanned off on their free bus passes.

Still, those who were at home were very pleasant and gratifyingly prepared to vote Labour on Thursday. I always worry about imposing on voters this late in a campaign – their frustration about having quite this much attention in a three-week period is understandable. But those I spoke to were remarkably philosophical about the whole thing, though no doubt they’ll be looking forward to the relative calm of Friday.

Just received this from a contact, staying at an open prison somewhere near London. He had an interesting encounter with a bloke in a pub whose sister’s ex-boyfriend knew a friend of Edward Timpson, the Tory candidate in Crewe and Nantwich. I thought I should share it with a wider audience:

“This bloke – Bob, I think his name was. Or maybe Eric – anyway, he once met Timpson at a party where Timpson was actually drinking alcohol and laughing and stuff. I mean, honestly! So Colin… I mean Bob… follows him home, you know, just out of interest, and decides – you know, as a little white lie – to break into his flat and go through all his stuff to try to find out more about him. For the public good, you understand.

“Can I get paid now?”

I know there will be some who have reservations about me publishing information of this kind, but I think people have the right to know the truth. And anyway, it’s as reliable as anything else available on the subject on other political blogs.

A number of right wing bloggers – and journalists who should know better – have been trying to make hay with the prime minister’s refusal to visit Crewe and Nantwich. Guido is using his typical invective to attack GB, but I can’t help feeling that the criticism would have been no less harsh had GB decided, after all, to visit the by-election. Tony Blair, in 1997, very briefly deviated from the convention that prime ministers don’t take part in by-elections, before wisely reinstating it.

Nevertheless, I think it would be only fair to take these critics – including Guido – seriously… provided they can honestly state that they also called for GB to visit the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-elections last July.

Well? Anyone…?

Iain Dale interviews Keith Simpson and me following Wednesday’s PMQs.

Following my earlier vitriolic assessment of the abilities of our esteemed fourth estate, I’m prepared to revisit my harsher views following an amiable conversation with a couple of hacks in Strangers Bar tonight, both of whom expressed some confidence that Labour will, in fact, hold onto Crew and Nantwich on May 22.

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the media, as well as the Tories, are praying that Labour loses the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Their agenda is pitifully transparent: a Labour victory would be dull. Far better to be able to report a meltdown in the governing party – even if that meltdown isn’t occurring.

There are many good reasons to hope for a Labour victory, but one of them would certainly be the joy of watching crestfallen hacks trying to spin a Labour victory as a Labour failure.