And another thing…

7 May, 2010 - A Tory's worst nightmare

AFTER three general election defeats in a row, it’s now virtually impossible to find a Tory who is not super-smug about their chances at the next one.

Despite Labour majorities of 180, 160 and 66, most Tories now believe that voting on the day of the election, whenever it comes, will be a mere formality. The election’s in the bag; it’s simply now a matter of agreeing dates in the calendar for when “David” can move into No. 10.

And who said the Tories were arrogant, eh? After four election defeats, the Labour Party, from the leader to the armchair activist, dreaded another defeat and resolved to stop at nothing in its efforts to win next time round. 

The Conservative Party seems to have no such self doubt.

But I want those of you who subscribe to such views to do a little mental exercise, just for the sake of entertainment: imagine what would happen to the Tory Party if Labour wins next time.

Set aside your disbelief for the moment (someone give Johnny a slap on the back will you, before he chokes to death with that coughing). I’m not asking you to believe that the great British public have got the right to change their minds about how they intend to vote. But it might make for an interesting intellectual exercise.

If, on Friday 7 May 2010, we awake to pictures of a smiling GB and Sarah going into No. 10, and more sober images of “David” leaving his family home, refusing to speak to reporters until he’s had a chance to “take stock” of the result and discuss them with “senior Shadow Cabinet colleagues”… what happens next?

If it was a narrow Labour majority – say, one or two seats – would the party allow “David” to continue? What if it was a more healthy majority, set to sustain GB’s new government through an entire parliamentary term?

It’s an accepted fact that there are many on the right wing of the Conservative Party who are biting their tongues while “David” holds out a hope of a return to power for their party. They don’t like his perceived liberal namby-pambyism (though they shouldn’t worry – it is no more than perception). Would they keep their counsel for another four or five years?

And if he did decide to step aside, who would take over? Osborne? Gove? Hague? Davis? What would be the new leader’s strategy? Would he lead to the left or the right? 

For a politcal anorak like me, these are fascinating, if (at the moment) hypothetical, questions.

Go on, indulge me.

A RULE about reshuffles is that, whether in government or in opposition, they tend to be initially welcomed by the media. If doubts emerge, it is only in the aftermath, 24-48 hours later.

So the Tories have done well so far to dominate the political headlines on the day a second tranche of cash is to be shoveled into the black hole that is our banking system. And there are some interesting and intelligent moves: Grayling has done well in both his recent positions – transport and DWP – and it will be intersting to see how effective his rottweiller approach will be at Home Affairs.

Theresa May will probably be glad to have her second stint as Shadow Leader of the House finally end. Alan Duncan will enjoy his weekly jousts with Harriet Harman during Business Questios on Thursday mornings. As Coffee House rightly says this afternoon, Dominic Grieve should probably not have been given Shadow Home Secretary last summer when David Davis resigned, and he may well be more suited to Shadow Justice Secretary.

Two negative points, though: I share the disappointment of the business community and a sizeable number of Tory MPs that Cameron has not shifted Theresa Villiers out of transport (though I accept that would have been difficult following a week when he gave her such unambiguous support in her campaign against economic growth Heathrow’s third runway).

And then there’s the DD question. Having accepted the argument for bringing back at least one of the so-called Big Beasts, what is Cameron’s reason for not bringing back David Davis, especially after his tacit admission today that DD’s replacement has not performed well?

Having won the argument for Clarke’s return, DD’s supporters are unlikely to allow the prospect of his eventual return to the front bench disappear from the headlines or from Tory blogs.

INTRIGUING rumours at Westminster – despite the House not returning until next week.

I’m reliably informed that the recent vocal campaign to have Ken Clarke reinstated to the Shadow Cabinet is but a feint, a ruse to disguise the true intent  of KC’s apparent supporters: to bring back David Davis.

The former Shadow Home Secretary is considered one of the so-called “Tory Big Beasts” whose presence is sorely missed on Cameron’s front bench. With end-of-year polls showing a severe narrowing of the Tory lead, there is much complaining in the tearoom (or will be when it reopens for business next Monday) that, given the economic circumstances, Do-Nothing should be much further ahead than he is. Hence the increasingly voluble demands for DD’s return.

I suspect DD’s supporters, though, are being unrealistically optimistic: I can’t see Do-Nothing caving into this pressure in the same way he caved in over the Shadow Cabinet’s day jobs. He can’t afford another high profile defeat at the hands of his own party.

GOOD to see there are people in both parties who are able to talk some sense in these troubling times.

Margaret Beckett was absolutely right when she told Sky News that the Conservatives are making themselves vulnerable to the charge that they’re bullying the police in the Damian Green affair (“Greengate” anyone?).

And David Davis has actually managed to climb down from his high horse long enough to deliver some much-needed common sense from the Tory side by pointing out that those calling for the Speaker’s resignation are reducing the debate to nothing more than a squalid tribal battle.

I hope his party is listening. But I doubt it.

AS I WRITE this, the Rt. Hon. David Davis and Shami Chakrabarti are celebrating the defeat by the Lords of the government’s plans for 42 days pre-charge detention over a bottle of Champagne in the Pugin Room in the Commons.

I’m glad she has a reason to smile at last.

I wonder if they’ve invited Andy Burnham to join them?

Turnout in Haltemprice and Howden was a measly 34 per cent, less than half of what it was at the general election.

No doubt DD’s apologists will claim that this is all the Labour Party’s fault for not standing a candidate (shame on us for not jumping when DD clicks his fingers!). But no amount of spin or argument can disguise the fact that the Haltemprice and Howden by-election has been a colossal waste of time, effort and money.

More importantly, it has had not the slightest impact on public support for (or opposition to) the policy of 42 days detention.

Grim news for DD over at PoliticsHome, under the rather unambiguous headline: “It’s official: David Davies’ campaign a total failure”. It reports: “If anything, (the level of opposition to 42 days) has dropped since his resignation.”

And James Forsyth of the Spectator blog muses that “Davis must be anxiously hoping for a decent turn-out tomorrow. If it is embarrassingly low, he could find himself turned into a figure of fun.”

* the cost of the Haltempriice and Howden by-election to the public purse

Remember all the fuss in the media and in certain blogs when David Davis, Magna Carta’s champion*, announced he was resigning his seat over 42 days? You don’t? Well, don’t worry about it, because no-one else does either.

Have a look at these comments left on Guido Fawkes’ blog at the time. My favourite one, in response to a comment I had left, is: “You won’t know what has hit you once this particular ball gets rolling. You’ll have every civil liberties campaigner from half the globe swarming all over this one!” Er… well, okay, if you say so…

For those who are interested, polling is tomorrow. Expect wall-to-wall coverage on all the major networks**. And don’t forget to keep my handy armchair guide to turnout handy.

* With some caveats, the main one being DD’s support for 28 days pre-charge detention
** Don’t expect that at all

Barring any unforeseen events, David Cameron, the country’s third most prominent Conservative Party member, will next week welcome back to the Commons David Davis, the country’s second most prominent Conservative Party member.

Should be quite a spectacle, considering the amount of gritted teeth there will be on both sides of the rather awkward photo opportunity. Those of us who are old enough will recall a similar event in the Tory Party, when John Major, who had been party leader and prime minister for less than a year, was worried about the warmth of the reception delegates to annual conference might give his recently-deposed predecessor when she arrived on the platform. The solution was for JM to accompany MT as she made her entrance. The thunderous applause and the standing ovation, although obviously in response to The Blessed Margaret’s appearance, could then be spun to the media, however implausibly, as a sign of love for the current PM rather than the former one.

Expect a similarly cunning stunt from Dave as he seeks to bask in the reflected glory of his erstwhile (and future?) rival. “Dave congratulates Davis on stunning victory”, the Tory press releases will proclaim, as both men embrace/shake hands at St Stephen’s entrance. A few seconds later, Dave will head back to his office, muttering something impolite and inaudible, and DD will head to the whips’ office to ask if they’ve sorted out a new office for him. I hope he likes Portakabins.