And another thing…

Turnout in Haltemprice and Howden was a measly 34 per cent, less than half of what it was at the general election.

No doubt DD’s apologists will claim that this is all the Labour Party’s fault for not standing a candidate (shame on us for not jumping when DD clicks his fingers!). But no amount of spin or argument can disguise the fact that the Haltemprice and Howden by-election has been a colossal waste of time, effort and money.

More importantly, it has had not the slightest impact on public support for (or opposition to) the policy of 42 days detention.

Grim news for DD over at PoliticsHome, under the rather unambiguous headline: “It’s official: David Davies’ campaign a total failure”. It reports: “If anything, (the level of opposition to 42 days) has dropped since his resignation.”

And James Forsyth of the Spectator blog muses that “Davis must be anxiously hoping for a decent turn-out tomorrow. If it is embarrassingly low, he could find himself turned into a figure of fun.”

* the cost of the Haltempriice and Howden by-election to the public purse

Remember all the fuss in the media and in certain blogs when David Davis, Magna Carta’s champion*, announced he was resigning his seat over 42 days? You don’t? Well, don’t worry about it, because no-one else does either.

Have a look at these comments left on Guido Fawkes’ blog at the time. My favourite one, in response to a comment I had left, is: “You won’t know what has hit you once this particular ball gets rolling. You’ll have every civil liberties campaigner from half the globe swarming all over this one!” Er… well, okay, if you say so…

For those who are interested, polling is tomorrow. Expect wall-to-wall coverage on all the major networks**. And don’t forget to keep my handy armchair guide to turnout handy.

* With some caveats, the main one being DD’s support for 28 days pre-charge detention
** Don’t expect that at all

Barring any unforeseen events, David Cameron, the country’s third most prominent Conservative Party member, will next week welcome back to the Commons David Davis, the country’s second most prominent Conservative Party member.

Should be quite a spectacle, considering the amount of gritted teeth there will be on both sides of the rather awkward photo opportunity. Those of us who are old enough will recall a similar event in the Tory Party, when John Major, who had been party leader and prime minister for less than a year, was worried about the warmth of the reception delegates to annual conference might give his recently-deposed predecessor when she arrived on the platform. The solution was for JM to accompany MT as she made her entrance. The thunderous applause and the standing ovation, although obviously in response to The Blessed Margaret’s appearance, could then be spun to the media, however implausibly, as a sign of love for the current PM rather than the former one.

Expect a similarly cunning stunt from Dave as he seeks to bask in the reflected glory of his erstwhile (and future?) rival. “Dave congratulates Davis on stunning victory”, the Tory press releases will proclaim, as both men embrace/shake hands at St Stephen’s entrance. A few seconds later, Dave will head back to his office, muttering something impolite and inaudible, and DD will head to the whips’ office to ask if they’ve sorted out a new office for him. I hope he likes Portakabins.

Good on Ben Brogan for offering former MP David Davis some much-needed publicity. DD has been desperately writing green ink letters to the prime minister in the hope that he can remind the country of the by-election which is, despite appearances, happening in Haltemprice and Howden. According to DD, the PM has issued a gagging order on all Labour MPs warning them against engaging with the former Shadow Home Secretary on the issue of 42 days, etc. Guess I didn’t get the memo.

How intensely self-important do you have to be to imagine that your candidacy in an unnecessary and pointless by-election warrants such measures?

Turnout in Haltemprice and Howden at the 2005 election was just a smidgeon over 70 per cent. If turnout at the forthcoming by-election is a single vote less than that, David Davis’s kamikaze moment will all have been for nothing.

Here’s a turnout scorecard to help you gauge his success:

70-80 per cent: Well done, David. You’re a popular guy in your constituency but most people in the country still support 42 days
60-70 per cent: Oh, dear. Still, never mind, you’re back in a job at least.
50-60 per cent: Er, remind me why you did this?
40-50 per cent: You do know you’re not getting back on the front bench, don’t you?
30-40 per cent: “Here he comes – quick, look the other way!”