And another thing…

PERSONALLY, I think such displays of gleeful triumphalism from opposition politicians are unwise, whatever the polls may say. Still…

And a happy St Patrick’s Day from me, too.

7 May, 2010 - A Tory's worst nightmare

AFTER three general election defeats in a row, it’s now virtually impossible to find a Tory who is not super-smug about their chances at the next one.

Despite Labour majorities of 180, 160 and 66, most Tories now believe that voting on the day of the election, whenever it comes, will be a mere formality. The election’s in the bag; it’s simply now a matter of agreeing dates in the calendar for when “David” can move into No. 10.

And who said the Tories were arrogant, eh? After four election defeats, the Labour Party, from the leader to the armchair activist, dreaded another defeat and resolved to stop at nothing in its efforts to win next time round. 

The Conservative Party seems to have no such self doubt.

But I want those of you who subscribe to such views to do a little mental exercise, just for the sake of entertainment: imagine what would happen to the Tory Party if Labour wins next time.

Set aside your disbelief for the moment (someone give Johnny a slap on the back will you, before he chokes to death with that coughing). I’m not asking you to believe that the great British public have got the right to change their minds about how they intend to vote. But it might make for an interesting intellectual exercise.

If, on Friday 7 May 2010, we awake to pictures of a smiling GB and Sarah going into No. 10, and more sober images of “David” leaving his family home, refusing to speak to reporters until he’s had a chance to “take stock” of the result and discuss them with “senior Shadow Cabinet colleagues”… what happens next?

If it was a narrow Labour majority – say, one or two seats – would the party allow “David” to continue? What if it was a more healthy majority, set to sustain GB’s new government through an entire parliamentary term?

It’s an accepted fact that there are many on the right wing of the Conservative Party who are biting their tongues while “David” holds out a hope of a return to power for their party. They don’t like his perceived liberal namby-pambyism (though they shouldn’t worry – it is no more than perception). Would they keep their counsel for another four or five years?

And if he did decide to step aside, who would take over? Osborne? Gove? Hague? Davis? What would be the new leader’s strategy? Would he lead to the left or the right? 

For a politcal anorak like me, these are fascinating, if (at the moment) hypothetical, questions.

Go on, indulge me.