And another thing…

MANY economists make money by doom-saying.

Which is why, in every year since 1997 — sometimes more than a few times a year — there have been plenty of talking heads willing to appear in TV studios to offer depressing predictions.

And there were some who positively hoped for one. Some newspapers seemed to want to create a self-fulfilling prophesy, so enthusiastic were they about a recession’s onslaught.

And then it happened, and it was deeper than most had feared.

Now today, the Institute of Chartered Accountants has declared the recession over, and predicted that the UK’s economy will grow by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year.

Obviously that’s good news that everyone will welcome, although few will be popping the Champagne just yet. There is still a massive task ahead of us in getting the jobless totals down for a start.

The Institute also predict that America’s economy is about to start the long haul to recovery. So the question I ask is: would we be seeing these signs of recovery in the absence of Gordon Brown’s and President Obama’s stimulus packages? And, more to the point, would we be seeing them this early, when most economists have predicted a recovery to start next year at the very earliest?

Comments welcome, but please wipe the foam away from your mouths first — it can play havoc with your keyboard.

I CERTAINLY don’t want to provoke the wrath of the media and the blogosphere by suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the recession might come to an end at some point in the future and that it’s possible the world isn’t about to end or anything so complacent.

But there are a few optimistic, though admittedly not conclusive, signs that things may be about to get better.

• The pound has reached its highest level against the euro this year.
• The number of approved mortages saw a healthy month-on-month increase in May; and
• The recession is over. Maybe.

I spoke to a senior Tory MP at a reception on Tuesday evening who admitted that his party had absolutely no alternative strategy to getting the UK out of recession to the one Gordon Brown was already pursuing. We all know that, naturally, but it’s good to hear it from the horse’s mouth.

WATCHING an interview with Digby (Lord) Jones on BBC News’s HARDtalk programme last night, I was struck by his answer to Stephen Sackur’s question:

SACKUR: You said in September of 08… “The economy’s having a tough time but it is not in meltdown. The fundamentals of the UK economy are going to be okay.” I mean, that doesn’t sound quite so clever now.

JONES: I would say two things to that: I got it right that the fundamentals of the economy are going to be okay; I still believe that, that we are right in a very dire situation, but the fundamentals of democratic capitalism are still okay. I tell you: the alternatives are worse. But… when I said we’re not in meltdown, what I got wrong and I’d say sorry for it, is that actually we’re not in meltdown in terms of… we’re not suddenly going to have communism or fascism in this country. But I didn’t call the depth or the speed of the recession that happened and is enduring.

Like many in the Labour Party, I harboured some doubts about the wisdom of Jones’s appointment as a minister back in 2007, particularly when it was revealed that he would not be joining the party or taking the Labour whip in the Lords. But he was not the political car crash the media wanted and the party dreaded; on the contrary, he was an effective minister who did a great deal for British business abroad, visiting 31 countries during his 15 months in office.

It would have been easy for him to turn round, having left office, and put the boot into Gordon Brown and the government. Anyone who knows Jones will tell you he speaks his mind. If he really thought Labour had screwed up the economy, I’m pretty sure he would have said so in no uncertain terms.

The British media’s obsessive coverage of what they hope will become a recession is comparable only to their coverage of the weather. Normally the BBC only get breathless with anticipation when there’s been a couple of inches of snow somewhere and one of their news editors has had to spend 15 minutes longer than usual driving into work.

But that’s nothing compared to their pure excitement at the prospect of a recession. Amid all the coverage today of “the biggest fall in house prices in 15 years”, there’s been hardly a mention that house prices are still higher than they were this time last year. Fact is, a recession would be a big news story, and there’s nothing the media like better than a news story, regardless of who has to pay the price.

But here’s the really bad news, for the media, anyway: there isn’t going to be one. And that’s thanks largely to GB’s management of the economy since 1997. Watching the likes of Nick Robinson salivating at the thought of repossessions and mass unemployment is entertaining, but is that really what the BBC is for?