Many people danced a jig of delight when it was finally announced that Joe Biden had won the U.S. Presidential Election.
Punters were equally enamored when the Democrat metaphorically had his hand lifted in glory – especially those at Betfred and William Hill, who were the first to pay out on their customers’ winning tickets.
But hold your horses. Is the 2020 election really over? As you probably know by now, Donald Trump does not plan on departing the White House quietly, and it has already been reported that he has launched a legal case in many of the most hotly disputed states.
So what position do bettors find themselves in right now?
Will All Bookies Pay Out On Joe Biden?
As mentioned, most of the bookmakers have now settled bets on Biden and Trump, with Betfred and William Hill first up and Ladbrokes and Coral – after a period of hesitation – now also paying up.
In Australia, Sportsbet paid up as soon as the vote count suggested that Biden had taken Michigan. “After CNN projected the state of Michigan would go to the Democrats and holding the ascendancy in Nevada and Arizona, the online bookmaker has deemed the lead unassailable,” a statement from the firm read.
Some are still awaiting an official declaration of the result, and so firms like Betway are making their customers hang on for a while longer yet. Their spokesman, Chad Yeomans, told the Racing Post that ‘…given that the outcome is still being liquidly traded around the world, I think we can point to very legitimate reasons for not settling yet.’
And on a side note, the Betfair Exchange has also yet to settle their Next President market, and indeed Biden has lengthened in price to 1.10 – hardly a huge leap, but still one that suggests there may still be some time left before the debacle is untangled.
Will Donald Trump Actually Concede?
You can forgive the bookmakers for their initial reticence. Cast your mind back to the 2016 election, and you might just recall Paddy Power paying out early on a Hillary Clinton victory.
History can be cruel, of course, and that decision cost them nearly £1 million in paying out on ‘losing’ bets – plus the £4 million that they had to fork out on Trump’s victory as well.
Maybe that’s why some firms are refusing to pay out, and especially so give that Trump continues to refuse to concede the contest.
Making a concessionary statement is traditional when the presidency changes hand, but Trump has largely been keeping schtum on the outcome as he plots a series of legal challenges around the United States.
The incumbent president plans to challenge the result of the vote in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, while it has been rumored that in Georgia – where just a few thousand separated the candidates – all of the votes will be recounted by hand.
A whole host of allegations have been made by Trump and his team over alleged fraud, and so far no evidence has been presented to support such sensational claims. But he claims that some GOP poll watchers – the independent individuals responsible for upholding electoral integrity – were in fact ‘left-wing radicals’ intent on bringing him down.
Who Will Stand at the US Election in 2024?
According to reports, Trump has two agendas in mind – one being to start his own right wing news outlet to rival Fox News, who insiders suggest the president felt were ‘disloyal’ in their reporting of the election, and secondly a possible recharge for the election in 2024.
One of the sticking points on the front is age – Trump will be 78 in 2024, and so by the end of his term would be 82….that will be enough to convince Republicans that he isn’t the right man for the job, despite picking up more than 70 million votes at the polls.
Age may also be a factor in Biden’s long-term ambitions, and the 77-year-old is just 5/1 to triumph in the 2024 election – his VP, Kamala Harris, is the current 7/2 favourite.
Incidentally, Trump is a 10/1 shot at redemption in four years’ time, although the early frontrunner to be the Republican candidate is Trump’s VP, Mike Pence, at 9/1.