It never rains but it pours.
A matter of weeks after the Conservative Party lost more than 300 seats in a round of local elections, the Tories have been left to decode another pair of humbling defeats at the ballot.
In the Tiverton and Honiton ward in Devon, they saw a previous majority of 24,000 votes – around 40% of the local populace – disappear into thin air as the Liberal Democrats took the seat.
And in Wakefield, which was one of the former ‘red wall’ constituencies that the Conservatives won in 2019, Labour overturned their loss to regain control of the city.
Boris Johnson will brush off the crushing blows with his usual bluster and feigned indifference, but this is proof positive that the self-proclaimed election champion’s crown has well and truly slipped in the hearts and minds of the electorate.
His PR gurus will tell you that the Prime Minister is still suffering from the fallout of ‘partygate’, but that, you suspect, is hokum given that the UK is quickly descending back to the dark days of the 1970s, where a backdrop of high inflation, devastating cost of living and rail strikes threatened civil disorder on these shores.
The good news, if any, is that the betting markets are yet to reflect the turmoil in 10 Downing Street – and so at least we can attempt to profit from the misery.
Dowden Downed
One of Boris’ chief supporters, Oliver Dowden, has resigned as chairman of the Conservative Party after claiming that ‘somebody must take responsibility’ for the Tories’ poor form at the ballot box.
The former Digital, Culture, Media and Sport minister has described in a resignation letter shared on Twitter that the party’s supporters are ‘distressed and disappointed’ with recent events, and that somebody has to fall on their sword – even if Boris believes, rightly or wrongly, that person should not be him.
“Yesterday’s Parliamentary by-elections are the latest in a run of very poor results for our party. Our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events, and I share their feelings,” Dowden wrote.
“We cannot carry on with business as usual. Somebody must take responsibility and I have concluded that, in these circumstances, it would not be right for me to remain in office.”
My letter of resignation to the Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/xd5MtM2o3n
— Oliver Dowden (@OliverDowden) June 24, 2022
While not necessarily considered a pivotal figure in the PM’s cabinet, Dowden was one of the sacrificial lambs wheeled out during the daily pandemic briefings, so he was trusted to deliver key messages while fielding some difficult questions.
It’s doubtful that Johnson ever considered Dowden a key ally in the political game, but his resignation is another loss in what is fast making Boris’ job seem ever more untenable.
Next General Election Betting Odds
All of which brings us back to the political betting markets, in which there has been some movement.
Of course, we should note that there is little chance of Boris being ousted by the members of his own party – he survived that vote of no confidence earlier in June, and Parliamentary rules dictate that he should have a year of immunity….although the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has not ruled out the possibility of trying to change those rules.
So, for him to leave 10 Downing Street prematurely, Boris would need to resign – given the man’s ego, that seems an impossibility.
All of which takes us to the next General Election, which you would suspect will take place in 2024 – that’s the odds-on favourite with the bookies, anyway.
Interestingly, on the Betfair Exchange, Johnson is priced at 1.46 NOT to be the Conservative leader for the next election, although as mentioned he is likely to be in position for the next year at least.
The next General Election betting markets show that the Tories are 1.91 to win the most seats, and that seems extraordinarily hubristic given how Boris has lost his invincibility at the polls of late – Labour, at 2.10, are naturally the most likely benefactors of that.
At this point it seems almost a given that neither party will run away with the next election, and so odds of 1.76 on there to be no overall majority appear to be very charitable indeed.
